League One returns with a fresh set of fixtures as Bolton Wanderers and Accrington Stanley go head to head at the University of Bolton Stadium on Monday.
The Owd Reds will head into the game seeking to complete a first league double over the hosts after picking up a hard-fought 1-0 victory back in December's reverse fixture.
Match preview
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Bolton Wanderers returned to winning ways in League One when they saw off a resilient Doncaster Rovers side 2-1 at the Eco-Power Stadium on Friday.
Following an uneventful first half, the game sparked into life two minutes after the interval as Amadou Bakayoko opened the scoring, and after Ademipo Odubeko restored parity in the 77th minute, Kieran Sadlier struck moments later to hand the hosts their 28th defeat of the season.
Prior to that, the Trotters picked up a 1-0 win at Crewe Alexandra on March 19 before playing out successive 1-1 draws with Wigan Athletic, Portsmouth and Sheffield Wednesday respectively in their subsequent three outings.
Ian Evatt's men have picked up 18 wins, 10 draws and lost 15 of their 43 games this season to collect 64 points and sit 11th in the League One standings, one point adrift of Ipswich Town in the top half of the table.
While Bolton Wanderers will look to leapfrog the Tractor Boys, standing in their way is an opposing side who are unbeaten in each of the last four meetings between the teams, claiming three wins and one draw since 2019.
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Accrington Stanley, meanwhile, were denied a second consecutive win for the first time since February when they were held to an uneventful goalless draw by Burton Albion last time out.
Prior to that, the Owd Reds came from behind to claim a 2-1 victory at Fleetwood Town on April 9, when Sean McConville and Michael Nottingham scored second-half goals to end their five-game winless run.
The victory over Fleetwood also ended their run of nine games without a road win as they had lost seven and picked up just two draws since a slender 1-0 victory away to Lincoln City back in November.
With 55 points from 43 outings, John Coleman's side are currently 14th in the league standings, level on points with 13th-placed Cheltenham Town.
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Team News
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Bolton Wanderers will be missing several key players down the spine of the team as the defensive duo of Marlon Fossey, Ricardo Santos and midfielder Andrew Tutte have all been ruled out through injuries.
Kyle Dempsey continues his journey to full fitness after picking up an injury in the 1-1 draw with Portsmouth on April 5, while Lloyd Isgrove has been sidelined since last November.
With his assist against Doncaster Rovers, English midfielder Oladapo Afolayan now has 15 goal involvements to his name this season and the former West Ham United man will be one to keep an eye out for.
As for Accrington Stanley will be without Josh Woods, who picked up an injury in March's game against Portsmouth, while Joel Mumbongo continues his long road to full fitness after sustaining an injury back in December.
Harry Pell is set to sit out his fourth straight game after the 30-year-old midfielder was forced off injured just 17 minutes into the game against Cheltenham Town on April 2.
Bolton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Dixon; Jones, Aimston, Johnston, John; Morley, Williams; Bakayoko, Sadlier, Afolayan; Bodvarsson
Accrington Stanley possible starting lineup:
Savin; Clark, Rich-Baghuelou, Sykes, Nottingham; Leigh, Butcher, Pritchard, Hamilton, McConville; Bishop
We say: Bolton Wanderers 2-1 Accrington Stanley
With just three games left to play, a place in the playoffs is now unattainable for Bolton and they will now look to close out the season on a high. They go up against an Accrington Stanley side who have struggled to get going on the road, picking up 16 points from a possible 63 so far. We predict the hosts will come out victorious on Monday, albeit by a slender margin.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 61.48%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 16.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
