Borussia Monchengladbach host Inter Milan in Group B of the Champions League on Tuesday with the visitors requiring a win if they are to remain in the competition.
The two sides drew 2-2 at San Siro in the opening round of fixtures in the competition.
Match preview
© Reuters
Gladbach have performed above expectations in what is only the club's third ever Champions League group stage campaign, and as such possess an excellent chance of qualifying for the knockout stages for the first time.
Having conceded last-minute equalisers to Inter and Real Madrid, Marco Rose's side have backed those draws up with two convicting victories over Shakhtar Donetsk to move top of the group with only two fixtures remaining.
Indeed, Gladbach have shown their attacking capabilities by beating the Ukrainian champions by an aggregate score of 10-0, taking their goal tally in this season's competition to 14 in four matches.
Providing Shakhtar do not beat Real, avoiding defeat against Inter will see the German side qualify, and you would not bet against them in their current form having beaten Schalke 04 4-1 in the Bundesliga on Saturday.
© Reuters
Indeed, it has been another dismal Champions League campaign for Inter and Antonio Conte thus far, failing to win any of their opening four games and consequently facing a third successive exit from the competition at the group stage.
Admittedly, Inter have not had much luck in terms of their group pairings in recent years, drawing Barcelona in both of the previous two seasons along with Tottenham Hotspur and Borussia Dortmund respectively, but dropping into the Europa League (or worse should they finish bottom) is simply not good enough for a side with lofty ambitions and a thrifty chequebook to match them.
Facing a Real side missing Sergio Ramos and Karim Benzema due to injury last time out in the competition, the Italians would have felt they had an excellent chance of beating the 13-time champions, which would have moved them to second in the table. However, Arturo Vidal's 37th-minute red card made overturning Eden Hazard's successfully converted penalty earlier in the first-half an almost impossible task as they sunk to a 2-0 victory.
As such, Inter's task is simple: they must beat Gladbach and Shakhtar to have any chance of remaining in the competition. Even that may not prove enough, though, depending on results elsewhere.
Borussia Monchengladbach Champions League form: DDWW
Borussia Monchengladbach form (all competitions): WWLDWW
Inter Milan Champions League form: DDLL
Inter Milan form (all competitions): DLDWLW
Team News
© Reuters
Rose remains without winger Jonas Hofmann after the German international tore a muscle on international duty earlier this month.
Ramy Bensebaini is also unavailable due to coronavirus, but otherwise the 44-year-old appears to have a clean bill of health. He must choose between Alassane Plea or Breel Embolo to lead the line, with the latter perhaps preferred due to his pace in transition.
Conte will be without Vidal through suspension after the Chile midfielder's red card against Real.
Goalkeeper Daniele Padelli, defender Aleksandar Kolarov and midfielder Marcelo Brozovic are all out due to coronavirus, with Matias Vecino still on the sidelines with a knee injury.
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Lainer, Ginter, Elvedi, Wendt; Kramer, Neuhaus; Herrmann, Stindl, Thuram; Embolo
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Hakimi, Barella, Gagliardini, Sensi, Young; Lukaku, Martinez
We say: Borussia Monchengladbach 2-2 Inter Milan
With Inter knowing they have to win to remain in the competition, it should make for an entertaining game between two sides who have plenty of goals in their ranks.
We can see Gladbach getting the result they need to take them through (providing Shakhtar do not beat Real in the other match in the group).
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 39.65%. A win for Inter Milan had a probability of 33% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Inter Milan win was 0-1 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
