Borussia Monchengladbach host Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League on Wednesday with the German side looking to put some breathing space between themselves and third place in Group B.
Gladbach won the previous meeting between the two sides only three weeks ago by the astonishing scoreline of 6-0, with Alassane Plea scoring a hat-trick.
Match preview
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Indeed, the 6-0 win in Ukraine was Gladbach's biggest ever victory in European competition, taking them top of the group ahead of their Ukrainian opposition.
Plea's first half brace was added to by a Valeriy Bondar own goal and Ramy Bensebaini's strike to give Gladbach a commanding lead heading into the break, with another Plea strike in the second half backed up by Lars Stindl embarrassing Shakhtar in their adopted home stadium - the NSC Olimpiyskiy in Kiev - due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass region.
Marco Rose's side remain unbeaten in this season's competition, taking five points from their opening three games, and the 44-year-old will sense a real opportunity of making qualification more likely by beating Shakhtar once again. With Real Madrid and Inter Milan both playing each other in the other game in the group, one or both are guaranteed to drop points, allowing Gladbach to move further clear of their main rivals.
Having frustratingly drawn at home to 10-man Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday, though, the hosts do not necessarily come into the match with the highest of spirits, especially with Plea unavailable due to coronavirus.
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Shakhtar stunned the world by defeating Real Madrid 3-2 away from home despite missing a host of key players due to coronavirus in the opening game of the group, backing that up with an impressive 0-0 draw with Inter.
However, the 6-0 defeat to Gladbach was a real humbling for Luis Castro's side, with their luck in the opening two matches seemingly reversing itself entirely in catastrophic fashion.
They showed excellent resolve, though, by defeating title rivals Dynamo Kiev 3-0 away from home just five days after their thrashing at the hands of Gladbach, with Junior Moraes, Marcos Antonio and Alan Patrick all firing in the crucial win.
With more key players to choose from than in the previous meeting with Rose's side, Shakhtar undoubtedly have a better chance of recording a positive result providing that they can put the defeat to the back of their minds.
Borussia Monchengladbach Champions League form: DDW
Borussia Monchengladbach form (all competitions): WDWWLD
Shakhtar Donetsk Champions League form: WDL
Shakhtar Donetsk form (all competitions): DDWLWD
Team News
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Plea, the hat-trick hero in the last meeting between the two sides, is unavailable due to testing positive for coronavirus, meaning Breel Embolo is likely to start in attack.
Jonas Hofmann remains out with the torn muscle he sustained on international duty with Germany, but Denis Zakaria made his long awaited comeback from knee surgery as a substitute in the draw with Augsburg. However, it is probably too soon for the Swiss midfielder to start.
Shakhtar are a little healthier on the availability front than they have been in recent matches, with Ismaily and Maksym Malyshev long-term absentees due to their respective knee injuries.
Yevgeni Konoplianka and Viktor Kornienko are also still out with torn muscles, while Viktor Kovalenko is unavailable due to coronavirus.
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Lainer, Ginter, Elvedi, Bensebaini; Kramer, Neuhaus; Herrmann, Stindl, Thuram; Embolo
Shakhtar Donetsk possible starting lineup:
Trubin; Dodo, Kryvtsov, Matviyenko, Cipriano; Stepanenko, Patrick; Tete, Antonio, Taison; Moraes
We say: Borussia Monchengladbach 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk
We expect a much closer battle between these two sides than the one which took place in Ukraine three weeks ago, with Shakhtar likely to be fired up to prove that was a freak result.
However, Gladbach should still have enough to get themselves the win, which would see them edge closer to the Champions League knockout stages for the first time in the club's history.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 48.78%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 26.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 0-1 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Monchengladbach would win this match.
