Sports Mole previews Tuesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Borussia Monchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Borussia Monchengladbach take on Borussia Dortmund in the DFB-Pokal quarter-final on Tuesday, with both sides desperate to progress in what is their most realistic chance of winning a trophy this season.

There will undoubtedly be even more intrigue regarding this clash than usual given that Gladbach manager Marco Rose will be departing the club to take over Dortmund after the end of the current campaign.

Match preview

Florian Neuhaus in action for Borussia Monchengladbach on February 6, 2021 © Reuters

Indeed, after coming back from the winter break in brilliant form with 13 points from five league games, Gladbach have failed to win any of their five league games since, with the speculation and subsequent confirmation of their manager's future hardly helping matters.

After a lifeless performance during the 2-0 defeat at home to Manchester City in the Champions League, Die Fohlen reacted in the best possible way by taking an early two-goal lead at RB Leipzig on Saturday, with Jonas Hofmann and Marcus Thuram providing the visitors with a superb platform to build on for the rest of the match.

However, as is increasingly the case with Gladbach at present, their defence showed serious signs of vulnerability and nervousness, with Christopher Nkunku and Yussuf Poulsen both striking either side of the hour mark to level the proceedings.

With time running out it looked as though there would be a share of the spoils, but Alexander Sorloth sunk the visitors' hearts with a 93rd-minute winner, which leaves them still nine points behind the Champions League qualification positions.

Realistically, the cup is Rose's last chance to leave the club with a parting gift come the end of the campaign, with the 44-year-old likely to be ultra determined to prove his upcoming opponents have made the correct choice in appointing him.

Erling Braut Haaland celebrates scoring for Borussia Dortmund on February 20, 2021 © Reuters

Dortmund's chances of both progressing to the Champions League quarter-finals and finishing in the top four of the Bundesliga are significantly stronger than Gladbach's, as they followed up a 3-2 European win at Sevilla in the last-16 first leg with two comfortable league wins over sides in the relegation zone.

Indeed, a morale-boosting 4-0 win at their fiercest rivals Schalke 04 was backed up by Saturday's comfortable 3-0 win against Arminia Bielefeld. After a fairly subdued first half, second-half goals from Mahmoud Dahoud, Jadon Sancho and Reinier Jesus saw BVB capitalise on Eintracht Frankfurt's surprising defeat to Werder Bremen on Friday night and move within three points of Adi Hutter's side, who currently occupy fourth position.

However, interim head coach Edin Terzic will be highly motivated to boost his managerial credentials by winning a trophy in order to attract any potential suitors once he is succeeded by Rose in the summer, with the cup almost certainly representing Dortmund's best chance of achieving that.

BVB have reached the final of this tournament five times in the last nine seasons, winning it on two occasions under Jurgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel, two managers whom Terzic would dearly love to join in the pantheon of Dortmund trophy-winning managers.

With the likes of Sancho and Erling Braut Haaland back to their best in recent weeks, there is every chance they can reach the semi-final by beating an out-of-sorts Gladbach on Tuesday.

Borussia Monchengladbach DFB-Pokal form: WWW
Borussia Monchengladbach form (all competitions): WLDLLL

Borussia Dortmund DFB-Pokal form: WWW
Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions): WLDWWW

Team News

Axel Witsel pictured for Borussia Dortmund on April 21, 2019 © Reuters

Gladbach will be without their top goalscorer Lars Stindl due to suspension.

Rose will also be unable to call on the services of Stefan Lainer and Tony Jantschke, with the pair struggling with muscle injuries.

Dortmund, meanwhile, will travel to Monchengladbach without Thomas Delaney due to the Denmark midfielder suffering from a fever.

Manuel Akanji, Marcel Schmelzer and Axel Witsel are all out with injuries for BVB.

Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Beyer, Ginter, Elvedi; Lazaro, Neuhaus, Kramer, Bensebaini; Hofmann, Plea, Thuram

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Hitz; Meunier, Can, Hummels, Guerreiro; Dahoud, Bellingham; Sancho, Brandt, Hazard; Haaland

SM words green background

We say: Borussia Monchengladbach 1-3 Borussia Dortmund

We expect Dortmund to be too strong for their rivals offensively, with the likes of Sancho and Haaland in superb form at the moment.

Gladbach look like a team who are almost accepting that their season is disappointingly fizzling out, with this match potentially representing Rose's last chance of arresting the slide.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 20.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.67%) and 0-1 (8.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.51%), while for a Borussia Monchengladbach win it was 2-1 (5.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.