Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kazakhstan square off on Tuesday evening with both nations realistically requiring all three points if they are to keep their World Cup qualification hopes alive.
However, despite occupying fourth and fifth place respectively, a victor in Zenica could potentially move as high as second spot behind Group D leaders France.
Match preview
© Reuters
After collecting just two points from their opening three matches, you would be forgiven for assuming that Bosnia-Herzegovina feel pessimistic about their chances of making Qatar next year.
However, their 1-1 draw in France on Wednesday has breathed new life into their campaign, particularly when they still possess two games in hand on the teams currently occupying first and third.
With their two fixtures against France out of the way, everything appears to be playing into the favour of Ivaylo Petev's team, but they still need to take full advantage.
That may prove far easier said than done with Bosnia-Herzegovina only ending a near two-year winless streak at the weekend with a friendly win over Kuwait.
While just two goals have been scored in their last six fixtures, Edin Dzeko will be confident of adding to his 60 international goals.
Kazakhstan would have felt like they had growing momentum after beginning their September schedule with a dramatic 2-2 draw with Ukraine.
However, succumbing to a 1-0 reverse in Finland has altered that perception, leaving them in a position where they can ill-afford any more dropped points with just four games remaining.
Talgat Baysufinov's side have recorded some respectable results over the past 12 draws, earning draws in Montenegro and against Ukraine in their first meeting.
Nevertheless, they are now without a win in 11 outings, a streak which makes them clear underdogs for their upcoming fixture.
- D
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- D
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Barring any fitness issues, Petev is likely to feel comfortable with naming the same starting XI from the fixture in Paris.
Despite scoring the only goal of the game against Kuwait, Smail Prevljak is expected to remain among the replacements for this game.
Miralem Pjanic, whose lack of football at Barcelona has led to a transfer to Besiktas, will take his place in the centre of midfield.
With this representing Kazakhstan's third qualifier in less than a week, Baysufinov could bring in fresh legs for this contest.
Samat Zharynbetov is in contention for his first start after making his debut as a substitute versus Finland, while Askhat Tagybergen should return in midfield.
Bosnia-Herzegovina possible starting lineup:
Sehic; Susic, Ahmedhodzic, Hadzikadunic, Sanicanin, Kolasinac; Pjanic, Hadziahmetovic, Cimirot; Demirovic, Dzeko
Kazakhstan possible starting lineup:
Shatskiy; Tapalov, Erlanov, Marochkin, Alip, Taykenov; Zhukov, Tagybergen, Vorogovskiy; Tattybaev, Aymbetov
We say: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3-1 Kazakhstan
With neither team having nothing to gain from a share of the spoils, we expect an entertaining fixture on Tuesday evening. However, while Kazakhstan will pose a threat in the final third, the home side's extra quality should see them prevail relatively comfortably.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bosnia-Herzegovina win with a probability of 50.41%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 23.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.37%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (8.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
