There is a huge game on the south coast in the race for the Championship playoffs on Saturday as Bournemouth host Barnsley.
With 11 games of the season left to play for the majority of clubs, the Cherries are currently in seventh position in England's second tier, two points behind the Tykes in sixth.
Match preview
© Reuters
Barnsley missed the opportunity to go level on points with fifth-placed Reading when they drew 0-0 with Derby County on Wednesday in a game of few chances at Oakwell.
The stalemate brought an end to the Tykes' sensational seven-game winning streak, but they are still 10 matches unbeaten, and it is a run of form that has propelled them from mid-table obscurity to being in with a chance of an unlikely promotion.
The job that Valerien Ismael has done is remarkable considering that Barnsley were 21st in the table when he took over in October, and a place in the playoffs come May is now a real possibility.
The signings of Carlton Morris and Daryl Dike in January have proved particularly key, with the pair netting seven goals between them since arriving.
After travelling to the Vitality Stadium, the Yorkshire outfit's next two fixtures are against the bottom two – Wycombe Wanderers and Sheffield Wednesday – before they face a potentially crucial clash against Reading.
© Reuters
In contrast to Barnsley's early-season expectations, for Bournemouth a spot in the top six was the undoubted goal after their relegation from the Premier League last season.
Jason Tindall lost his job in trying to achieve it, but Jonathan Woodgate has steadied the ship since taking over and has lost just two of his eight league games at the helm.
The Cherries drew 1-1 with Preston last weekend as Steve Cook's error gifted the Lilywhites an equaliser after Arnaut Danjuma had put Bournemouth ahead in the first half.
Danjuma's goal was Bournemouth's 50th in the Championship this season – only three teams have more, while they have scored in all but two of their home fixtures this season.
It is an intense period for the Cherries as they host Swansea City on Tuesday before facing Southampton in the FA Cup quarter-finals next weekend.
Bournemouth have won the last three meetings between the two sides without conceding a goal, earning a clinical 4-0 victory at Oakwell in this season's reverse fixture in December.
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Bournemouth have confirmed that Lewis Cook will miss the rest of the season after suffering a ruptured anterior cruciate ligament against Preston last weekend.
Jack Wilshere is likely to take Cook's place in midfield in what could be Woodgate's only change from the trip to Deepdale.
Sam Surridge is back in training following a toe problem, but David Brooks remains sidelined.
Barnsley boss Ismael has not tinkered too much with his team in recent games but may hand a recall to Michael Sollbauer in the back three.
Further up the pitch, Conor Chaplin did little to impress against Derby on Wednesday so Morris could start for the first time in four games.
Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Begovic; Smith, Carter-Vickers, S. Cook, Kelly; Wilshere, Pearson, Lerma; Stanislas, Solanke, Danjuma
Barnsley possible starting lineup:
Collins; Sollbauer, Helik, Andersen; Brittain, Palmer, Mowatt, Styles; Morris, Woodrow; Dike
We say: Bournemouth 1-0 Barnsley
While we are only in March, this game really could prove vital in deciding who takes a playoff spot. With that in mind, both teams may be a little more conservative in their play than usual, and it is likely to be decided by one goal. Bournemouth will have had more preparation after not playing in midweek so we think that the hosts will snatch it.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 41.05%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 31.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 0-1 (10.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
