Braga head into the second leg of their Europa League playoff tie with Sheriff Tiraspol on Thursday evening needing to overturn a 2-0 deficit.
Goals at the end of each half gave the Moldovan outfit another famous win during an historic European campaign, and they will fancy their chances of breaking further ground at Estadio Municipal de Braga.
Match preview
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Heading into last week's game in Moldova, Braga boss Carlos Carvalhal would have been confident of overcoming opponents who had not played a competitive game for more than two months.
However, it was Sheriff who ended each period on the front foot, and a penalty from Sebastien Thill and a late second from Adama Traore have put their side on the brink of a surprise place in the last 16.
With Braga having won five of their last nine outings in all competitions, there is an argument that the result went against the formbook, but Carvalhal's men have struggled for goals since the resumption of action on January 9.
Os Arcebispos have failed to score more than twice in any of those fixtures, with their last fixture away at lowly Tondela being decided by a second-half goal from Ricardo Horta.
The versatile playmaker now has 17 strikes in all competitions this campaign, and Carvalhal will be relying on his talisman to lead a revival at the Sheriff Stadium.
At a time when Braga were being pushed all of the way by Tondela, Sheriff were enjoying another weekend off with their domestic action not resuming until February 28.
Yuriy Vernydub would have naturally had his concerns regarding the sharpness of his players ahead of the first leg, but he will now have total belief that they can finish the job in Portugal.
Some of that optimism will stem from four points being collected from away games at Real Madrid, Inter Milan and Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League.
The Yellow-Blacks also avoided defeat at Red Star Belgade and Dinamo Zagreb in the qualifying rounds for that competition, highlighting the size of the task which awaits Braga.
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Team News
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Braga will be able to call upon defender Diogo Leite after he missed the trip to Moldova through suspension.
Carvalhal has plenty of options at his disposal and could rotate, with Yan Couto and Andre Horta potentially being brought back into the side.
Vitor Oliveira may get the nod over Abel Ruiz down the middle of the attack.
Sheriff are boosted by the return of both Gustavo Dulanto and Edmund Addo after they completed their respective bans.
John Charles Petro may drop out of the three-man backline, with Addo pushing Boban Nikolov for a start in midfield.
Braga possible starting lineup:
Matheus; Leite, P. Oliveira, Tormena; Couto, Castro, Musrati, Gomes; Horta, A. Horta; V. Oliveira
Sheriff Tiraspol possible starting lineup:
Athanasiadis; Evangelou, Radeljic, Dulanto; Bruno, Addo, Thill, Julien; Traore, Yakhshiboev, Yansane
We say: Braga 2-1 Sheriff Tiraspol (Sheriff Tiraspol to win 3-2 on aggregate)
With home advantage in their favour, it feels reasonable to back Braga to edge this contest. However, with 90 minutes now in their legs, we are backing Sheriff to net the goal that may put this tie beyond the reach of their higher-profile opponents.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 47.95%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Sheriff Tiraspol had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.42%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Sheriff Tiraspol win it was 0-1 (8.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
