Two teams fighting for a spot in the 2022 Copa Libertadores group stage will face each other on Saturday as Bragantino play host to Fortaleza from Estadio Nabi Abi Chedid.
Braga were shut out for a third consecutive Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A fixture this week when they fell 2-0 to Santos, while Leo do Pici dropped two points, conceding a goal in injury time in a 1-1 draw with Sao Paulo.
Match preview
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In a long domestic season like the one in Brazil, you have to sustain a high level of play for long stretches, which Mauricio Barbieri has not seen from his team all the time.
You cannot deny that this side are a talented one with some of the top attacking players in the league, but they tend to lose their focus once in a while.
In recent weeks, it is safe to say that their focus has not always been on what is directly in front of them, and despite having their share of opportunities, they have not gotten themselves into good scoring positions enough over their previous three encounters but have looked rather complacent, while lacking precision when playing statistically weaker sides in the Brasileiro Serie A.
As they prepare to face Athletico Paranaense a week from Saturday in the final of the Copa Sudamericana, many will be curious to see what kind of approach Barbieri will take with an opportunity to get their hands on the first continental trophy in the history of the club.
While they have not fared well against the sides near the bottom of the table, they have shown that they are capable of handling themselves against the top teams in Brazil, losing only one of their six matches played against opponents who are currently in the top four, including victories over Palmeiras and Flamengo, although their one defeat came at the hands of Fortaleza.
Bragantino are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions when scoring first but have not won the previous 10 games in which they have conceded the opening goal.
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Fortaleza have fought hard over their previous three games but have only a point to show for their efforts, and as a result, finishing in a top-four position will be a big challenge.
At present, they are clinging to fourth and a guaranteed spot in the 2022 Copa Libertadores group stage, which is a massive improvement from a year ago when they avoided relegation on goal difference.
In football, you can work hard for almost a full 90 minutes and not be rewarded, and Juan Pablo Vojvoda has seen his players falter at the most inopportune time, conceding winning goals to America Mineiro and Corinthians with less than 10 minutes remaining and having to settle for a single point versus Sao Paulo, allowing the equaliser in the 92nd minute.
While it has to be frustrating to allow so many goals so late, it is clear that they have allowed too many good opportunities, which has eventually come back to bite them, conceding 16 shots on target in their last three games.
They have never beaten Braga away from home, but they did get the better of them in their first meeting back in July 1-0, thanks to an early goal from Robson.
For most of the year, they have employed a 3-4-1-2 formation with their backline being severely overworked at times as fatigue appears to be setting in for them near the end of a match, but their defenders do possess some excellent ball skills to be able to string together some quick passes and find the central spaces for their attackers to exploit.
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Team News
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Ytalo is without a goal since October 28, which was also the last time that Braga scored in league play, as Tomas Cuello also tallied in that game, and they got some help when Chico scored on his own net for Sport Recife in a 3-0 win.
Barbieri went with the same starting 11 this week against Santos as he had in their defeat to El Paranaense, but the back four of Edimar, Natan, Fabricio Bruno and Aderlan did not provide much help for Cleiton, who faced five shots from dangerous positions and conceded twice.
Braga have had plenty of scoring depth this season with some intelligent rental players at their disposal in 2021, including Lucas Evangelista, who is on loan from Nantes in Ligue 1 and has three goals for his temporary club so far, while Helinho, on loan from Sao Paulo has chipped in with three assists.
On Wednesday, Valentin Depietri picked up his first assist of the season on their only goal scored by Robson, who moved ahead of Yago Pikachu for first on the team with nine strikes.
Titi replaced Jackson at the back for their match versus Sao Paulo, Ederson was inserted into the lineup over Felipe Alves, Jussa replaced Matheus Vargas in the midfield and at forward, Depietri played alongside Robson as David did not dress.
Lucas Crispim has been sorely missed, as the midfielder from Brasilia, who is tied with Pikachu for assists with seven, has not seen the field since being substituted late in their 4-0 defeat versus Atletico Mineiro in the Copa do Brasil on October 20.
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Edimar, Ortiz, Bruno, Aderlan; Ramires, Jadsom; Martinez, Helinho, Artur; Ytalo
Fortaleza possible starting lineup:
Boeck; Tinga, Benevenuto, Titi; Ederson, Vargas, Ronald, Melo; Lima; Robson, Romarinho
We say: Bragantino 2-1 Fortaleza
Fortaleza have two more victories this year than Braga, and that is the only thing keeping them in fourth place in the table.
Bragantino should be focused and ready to give their best against a side that have been one of the surprises in this domestic campaign, but Braga seem to be dialled in when facing the top teams in Serie A.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (10.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.