Santos can put some distance between themselves and relegation when they host Bragantino from Estadio Urbano Caldeira in match number 31 for them in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A on Wednesday.
Coming into this midweek encounter, Braga have been shut out in consecutive league fixtures, with defeats to Cuiaba and Athletico Paranaense, while the famous club based in Vila Belmiro are sitting in 16th place, five points above the relegation line.
Match preview
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For years, Santos, who are located in a small community with a population of under half a million people, have held their own with the elite sides like Palmeiras, Sao Paulo and Flamengo, to name a few, while managing to stay near the top half of the Brasileiro table more often than not.
However, in 2021 it has been a different story for the team that produced global superstars like Pele, Robinho, Neymar and Alex Sandro, as Peixe have not had a lot of youngsters with a ton of market value in recent years, and as a result, we are seeing them struggle to compete domestically.
Fabio Carille has had a couple of months to assess this team, who took some time adjusting to this defensive-minded coach, who led Corinthians to the Brasileiro league title in 2017, a year in which Santos came in third.
They come into this fixture having dropped a 2-0 decision to Palmeiras on Sunday, in a match where they had their share of good opportunities, firing four shots on target, but were unable to contain the scoring depth and pressure from Palestra in the second half.
That result ended a two-match winning run for them, as they shut out both Fluminense and Athletico Paranaense in the final week of October.
Traditionally their fans are used to seeing one of two things when they have watched this team play at Estadio Urbano Caldeira in 2021, either a stingy defensive unit or one who struggle in attack, as they have either blanked their opponents or been blanked by them in seven straight home fixtures in all competitions.
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Bragantino have had their share of good opportunities to score in their previous two matches, but the joint second-highest scoring side in the league at the moment have been firing a lot of blanks, without a goal on their last 11 targeted efforts.
Mauricio Barbieri has not changed the way that his team have played all year, intending to press the opposition in the middle and create a lot of chances in transition.
This team have been right near the top of the standings throughout much of the season, but they tend to have some uncharacteristic slip-ups and drop points to sides who are struggling, including Chapecoense, Bahia, Juventude and Santos to name a few.
Against Santos back in July, Braga twice had a one-goal lead but conceded in the 95th minute, in a draw that had to have felt like a loss.
Letting in goals late in matches has been an issue for this team in 2021, conceding twice in injury time to draw Ceara 2-2 last month, the second time in which they have done that this year, having now allowed goals beyond the 90 minutes in back-to-back games.
Those dropped points could be what stands between them and winning the league as they are currently 16 points behind Atletico Mineiro in the table, but they will have to be careful not to get too complacent, currently only a point above Fortaleza and a guaranteed spot in the 2022 Copa Libertadores group stage.
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Team News
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Santos are missing Sandry because of a ruptured knee ligament, Kevin Malthus has a cruciate ligament problem and John is out with a meniscal injury.
On Sunday, Carille made many changes to the starting lineup, including Vinicius Zanocelo replacing Vinicius Balieiro in midfield, Marinho was chosen to start versus Palmeiras rather than Angelo and Raniel was inserted as the central striker in place of Diego Tardelli.
Marcos Guilherme and Marcos Leonardo scored in their draw at Braga earlier this season, as they currently have four and one goal, respectively.
Alerrandro and Ytalo had the only two goals for Bragantino against Santos a few months ago, as the latter leads the team in goals with 10, three more than the next highest person on this side, Artur.
On Sunday, Fabricio Bruno replaced Leo Ortiz in central defence, Edimar took the spot of Weverson, Jadsom came into midfield instead of Luciano Silva Santos and Artur played just in behind Ytalo, with Alerrandro sitting on the bench.
Cleiton has 10 sheets this year, although the 24-year-old Brazilian international has conceded three times in his previous two fixtures.
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Boza, Kaiky, Felipe, Velazquez; Sanchez, Zanocelo, Pirani, Braga; Marinho, Raniel
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Aderlan, Bruno, Weverson, Edimar; Jadsom, Ramires; Hurtado, Artur, Cuello; Ytalo
We say: Santos 0-2 Bragantino
Even though Braga have lost two consecutive games, they are a superior side to Santos, scoring 21 more goals than them to this point of the campaign.
Santos do not have the kind of depth that their opponents possess in the attacking third, and they do not have enough consistency to convince anyone that they can beat a side with the quality of Bragantino.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 39.52%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 32.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 0-1 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
