Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria win with a probability of 44.15%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (8.57%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (9.82%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.