Brazil Under-20s continue their quest for a record-equalling sixth Under-20 World Cup title when they meet Tunisia Under-20s at the Estadio Unico Diego Armando Maradona in La Plata for Wednesday's last-16 battle.
The Selecao Sub-20 topped a closely-fought Group D to seal a path to the knockout rounds, while their African counterparts just about progressed with a third-placed Group E finish.
Match preview
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Seeking to assert their dominance on the international stage after racing away to the Under-20 South American title, Brazil were brought crashing back down to earth in their opening Group D game, conceding three first-half goals in a 3-2 defeat to Italy.
The continental champions were made to pay for a disastrous opening 35 minutes on matchday one, but Ramon Menezes's side quickly consigned that opening defeat to history and hit the Dominican Republic for six without reply to leave them on the cusp of last-16 qualification.
Requiring all three points to draw level with Nigeria on the final day, Brazil put the Flying Eagles to the sword through Jean Pedroso and Marquinhos's efforts in a 2-0 win, thereby rising from the ashes to finish first in the group, matching Italy and Nigeria's six-point tallies but winning out on goal difference.
Unsurprisingly showing plenty of attacking flair early doors, Brazil were one of just three teams in the group stages to reach double figures in goals - netting 10 in total - as many as Argentina and one worse off than top scorers Ecuador, who hit Fiji for nine in one game.
Champions of the world in Under-20 football in 1983, 1985, 1993, 2003 and 2011, Brazil peculiarly failed to qualify for the 2013, 2017 and 2019 tournaments, but they reached the final in 2015 and are well on their way to redemption for their recent failures at this level.
In contrast, Tunisia's run at their recent continental championships ended in dismay - losing 3-0 to Senegal in the Under-20 Africa Cup of Nations semis and suffering a 4-0 loss to Nigeria in the third-placed playoff - and their bid for World Cup glory began in similar fashion.
A 1-0 defeat to England on matchday one already had the Carthage Eagles fighting an uphill battle to progress through the groups, but they reignited their charge with a 3-0 thumping of Iraq, despite playing the final 15 minutes of that encounter with 10 men.
Tunisia's hopes of a top-two finish in Group E were ultimately dashed in a 1-0 reverse to Uruguay on Sunday courtesy of an injury-time Franco Gonzalez penalty, but with a total of three points and a +1 goal difference, Montasser Louhichi's bested France and Japan's records by the skin of their teeth to go through as the fourth-best third-placed team.
As a result, the current Carthage Eagles crop have made history for Tunisia, who have reached the knockout stages of the Under-20 World Cup for the first time in just their third appearance, going out in the groups during the 1977 and 1985 tournaments and subsequently failing to qualify for another 38 years.
Louhichi's men will no doubt make the long flight home satisfied with their side's work in Argentina, and should they pull off a giant killing of the Brazilians, a quarter-final against either Uzbekistan or Israel will be their reward.
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Team News
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Brazil did not come out of their win over Nigeria in one piece, as left-back Kaiki was the victim of a crunching challenge in the second half, and his race was run with 67 minutes on the clock.
Menezes opted for a change of shape when taking off Kaiki - bringing striker Giovane on in his place - but Andre and Douglas Mendes should be on standby if the former is not passed fit for Wednesday's affair.
Arsenal starlet Marquinhos and Chelsea youngster Andrey Santos - who dons the captain's armband for the Selecao Sub-20 - are set to join forces in the midfield trident, with the former operating in a deeper role as PSV Eindhoven's Savio starts on the right wing.
As for Tunisia, Louhichi will both welcome a player back from a ban while losing another to the naughty step, as left-back Rayan Nasraoui received a straight red card against Iraq but is primed to return to the squad for Wednesday's game.
However, captain Ghaith Ouahabi was cautioned for the second time in two matches last time out - picking up his yellow card in the eighth minute of second-half injury time - and Tunisia will have to cope without their skipper as a result.
Should Louhichi wish to continue with a back five, Zinedine Sassi would be a like-for-like swap, but striker Youssef Snana is another candidate for a recall if the Tunisia boss opts for a change in formation.
Brazil Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Mycael; Arthur, Pedroso, Renan, Andre; Marquinhos, Santos, Gomes; Savio, Leonardo, Biro
Tunisia Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Arfaoui; Ghorbel, Saoudi, Bouchniba, El Abed; Dhaoui, Derbali, Couchane, El Djebali, Yacoub; Snana
We say: Brazil Under-20s 3-0 Tunisia Under-20s
Failing to score in four of their last five games does not bode well for Tunisia against one of the tournament favourites, and nor does the enforced absence of their captain, leaving Louhichi somewhat short in the middle of defence.
Brazil did not exactly play Nigeria off the park last time out, but we cannot see Tunisia springing any surprises in La Plata and expect the South American champions to advance to the last eight with relative ease.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil Under-20s win with a probability of 62.3%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Tunisia Under-20s had a probability of 17.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brazil Under-20s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.54%), while for a Tunisia Under-20s win it was 1-2 (4.77%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brazil Under-20s would win this match.
