Brest take on Nimes in Ligue 1 on Sunday in a potentially pivotal relegation clash for both sides.
The hosts are currently six points clear of 18th-placed Nimes, so a win could all but secure survival for another season for them, with time running out for the visitors to mount a great escape.
Match preview
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Brest had a golden opportunity to move clear of relegation last weekend when travelling to Lorient, but lost 1-0 to Christophe Pelissier's side. The defeat was bad news for Nimes, too, as it meant Lorient pulled three points clear of them and safety, sandwiched in the table between the two forthcoming opponents on Sunday.
Laurent Abergel squirmed the ball home on the stroke of half time after fine interplay in the Brest penalty area, with the visitors struggling to mount any sort of comeback in the second half.
Olivier Dall'Aglio's side's misery was compounded by Haris Belkebla's injury-time dismissal, with the midfielder feeling forced into tripping up a Lorient attacker as they raced through towards an empty net after goalkeeper Gautier Larsonneur had been caught upfield from a corner.
Having won just one of their last six league games, Dall'Aglio may be feeling under pressure ahead of the match against Nimes, but will not be transmitting that to his players, who must show cool heads to get the job done on Sunday.
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Having amassed only 12 points from their first 17 games prior to the winter break, it is surprising that Nimes even have a genuine chance of staying up in Ligue 1 at this stage of the campaign.
Having survived on a technicality after last season was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Nimes fans are beginning to dream of competing in France's top tier for a fourth successive season.
Indeed, Pascal Plancque masterminded a superb 2-1 win away to league leaders Lille prior to the international break, but could not back it up when falling 2-0 at home to Saint-Etienne last weekend.
Former Sunderland forward Wahbi Khazri scored a screamer from outside of the area to break the deadlock, with Baptiste Reynet making a superb save to prevent Nimes from chasing a two goal deficit after the half-time interval.
However, Les Verts continued to threaten in transition, before another thunderbolt from distance from Denis Bouanga took the game away from the hosts.
Nimes will be hoping for a little more fortune on Sunday in what surely represents a must-not-lose fixture for them, but they will take confidence from beating Brest 4-0 in the reverse fixture on the opening day of the season.
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Team News
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Brest will be without Belkebla for two matches after his straight red card in the defeat to Lorient.
Paul Lasne is out for the rest of the season with an ACL injury, with Sebastien Cibois, Christophe Herelle and Denys Bain all unlikely to feature against Nimes.
Nimes, meanwhile, are likely to travel without Lucas Buades, Pablo Martinez, Sidy Sarr and Clement Depres, with the quartet unlikely to recover from injury for at least another week.
Plancque will be hoping for a big performance from top goalscorer Renaud Ripart, who has scored eight league goals this season.
Brest possible starting lineup:
Larsonneur; Duverne, Chardonnet, Brassier; Pierre-Gabriel, Fadiga, Lucas, Perraud; Cardona, Mounie, Honorat
Nimes possible starting lineup:
Reynet; Alakouch, Ueda, Guessoum, Meling; Eliasson, Deaux, Cubas, Ripart, Ferhat; Kone
We say: Brest 1-1 Nimes
We can envisage a share of the spoils in Brest on Sunday, with neither side wanting to lose ground on each other.
Nimes' need for a win is greater, though, so they may feel they have to go all out for it as the game progresses.
Top tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 44.11%. A win for Nimes had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Nimes win was 0-1 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
