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Bristol Rovers
League One | Gameweek 38
Mar 27, 2021 at 3pm UK
Memorial Stadium
Sunderland

Bristol Rovers
0 - 1
Sunderland


Leahy (36')
FT(HT: 0-1)
O'Brien (39')
Scowen (50'), Sanderson (53'), O'Nien (85')

Preview: Bristol Rovers vs. Sunderland - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Bristol Rovers and Sunderland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bristol Rovers welcome Sunderland to the Memorial Stadium on Saturday in a huge game at both ends of the League One table.

A resurgence under new manager Lee Johnson has seen the Black Cats rise to third in the table, with games in hand on the top two sides, while the hosts have fallen into the relegation zone after suffering three consecutive defeats.


Match preview

Joey Barton in charge of Fleetwood Town on September 8, 2018© Reuters

Bristol Rovers suffered a third consecutive defeat last time out, as Jack Payne fired Swindon Town to a 1-0 victory at the Memorial Stadium.

That followed a 3-2 defeat to Charlton Athletic, and a much more disappointing 2-0 loss at the hands of 16th-placed Plymouth Argyle.

As a result, Joey Barton's side now sit 21st in League One, with the threat of relegation looming.

However, they do still have plenty of hope of survival, as they sit just two points adrift of safety, having been leapfrogged by Northampton Town recently.

Since his appointment in February, Barton has been unable to change the fortunes of the Gas, having picked up just seven points from his first nine games in charge.

He will be desperate to get back to winning ways and improve that tally on Saturday, as they look to pick up a crucial win to help their chances of moving out of the league's bottom four.

However, they could not face many tougher obstacles than Sunderland, as the Black Cats appear to be hitting for at the right time in their search for promotion.

Danny Graham pictured for Sunderland in November 2020© Reuters

After the club has been left languishing in League One for the last two years, Lee Johnson appears to have brought some strength back to the Black Cats, with Sunderland winning 15 of the 26 games in all competitions since his appointment in December.

That included an EFL cup triumph, as they defeated Tranmere 1-0 in the final at Wembley Stadium to lift the trophy.

However, more importantly for the fans of the Wearside club, Johnson has put them right in the hunt for promotion back to the Championship.

That has been made possible by a strong run of form in the league, with his side picking up seven wins and two draws from their last nine League One outings.

As a result, the Black Cats now sit in third place, just two points off the automatic promotion spots, with a game in hand on second-placed Peterborough United.

While that game in hand feels huge for Johnson's men, it is equally important that they keep the pressure on the top two sides in order for them to remain in pole position for promotion, and the former Bristol City manager will be desperate to return to winning ways on Saturday after their 1-1 draw with Lincoln City last time out.

Bristol Rovers League One form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L

Sunderland League One form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D

Sunderland form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D


Team News

Bristol Rovers' Alfie Kilgour celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 9, 2021© Reuters

Bristol Rovers goalkeeper Joe Day returned to the starting team last time out, after he missed the defeat to Plymouth Argyle.

Winger Sam Nicholson remained out for the loss to Swindon Town, despite Barton wanting him back for that game, and he remains a major doubt for Saturday's match.

Experienced midfielder Alex Rodman is also expected to remain out, having missed the last three games with an injury, while Josh Barrett and Abu Ogogo also both remain out of contention.

However, midfielder Joshua Grant did return to action against Swindon, boosting Barton's options going into the final stretch of the season.

Defender Jack Baldwin will come up against his former club, having spent two years at the Stadium of Light after their relegation to the third tier.

He will be up against his former teammate Charlie Wyke, who has fired the Black Cats up the league with nine goals in his last nine games, taking his tally to 22 league goals for the season.

That scoring run has been helped by the creative form of Aiden McGeady, who has returned back to what resembles his best this season, registering two goals and 11 assists in 20 league appearances.

Winger Jordan Jones is said to have started light training following his recent injury, but the Rangers loanee will not be fit to start on Saturday.

However, the Black Cats have been handed a potential boost for the final 10 games of the season, as defender Denver Hume is set to return imminently, although Johnson is unlikely to risk him with a full game straight away, given the nature of his long-term hamstring injury.

Similarly, winger Aiden O'Brien could be fit enough to return to the squad, giving Johnson plenty more options for the crucial end to the campaign.

Bristol Rovers possible starting lineup:
Day; Williams, Kilgour, Baldwin, Leahy; Grant, Upson, McCormick; Oztumer, Ayunga, Hanlan

Sunderland possible starting lineup:
Burge; McLaughlin, Sanderson, O'Nien, McFadzean; Power, Winchester, Leadbitter; McGeady, Wyke, Gooch


SM words green background

We say: Bristol Rovers 0-2 Sunderland

While Bristol Rovers will come into this game in desperate need of three points, we see the visitors simply being too strong for Barton's side, as Sunderland continue their march towards the top two.

With promotion firmly in their sights if they can continue this run of form, this talented Sunderland squad should have the motivation it needs to get over the line, starting with a crucial win on Saturday.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data



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Written by
Sam Varley

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 61.62%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 16.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.81%) and 1-2 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for a Bristol Rovers win it was 1-0 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Sunderland in this match.


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Fleetwood Town manager Joey Barton pictured in January 2020
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