Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 44.25%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 30.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 0-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.