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Burnley logo
Premier League | Gameweek 30
Apr 21, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Turf Moor
Southampton logo

Burnley
2 - 0
Southampton

Roberts (12'), Collins (44')
Cork (38'), Tarkowski (73')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Bednarek (73'), Perraud (79')

Preview: Burnley vs. Southampton - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Premier League clash between Burnley and Southampton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

For the first time since October 2012, Burnley will take to the Turf Moor pitch without Sean Dyche in charge, as they play host to Southampton for their Premier League clash on Thursday night.

The Clarets are sitting 18th in the table, three points adrift from safety, while the Saints are in 12th place and just one point behind the top 10.


Match preview

Burnley caretaker manager Mike Jackson and academy director Paul Jenkins pictured on April 17, 2022© Reuters

Burnley's first game for nine and a half years without Sean Dyche in the dugout saw them claim a point away at West Ham United last weekend, though they missed the chance to secure all three.

Wout Weghorst ended an eight-game goal drought by heading home the opener just after the hour mark, before Maxwel Cornet missed from the penalty spot on the stroke of half time. The Ivorian's miss proved costly as the Hammers equalised in the 74th minute through Tomas Soucek, with both sides eventually forced to settle for a 1-1 draw.

No Premier League team has drawn more games than Burnley (13) this campaign, and while wins are now more important than solitary points in their bid for survival, caretaker boss Mike Jackson was pleased with the result and his side's performance against a European-chasing opponent.

The Clarets will now be preparing for a return to Turf Moor where they were successful last time out, securing a crucial 3-2 victory against relegation rivals Everton, which is just their fourth win in 31 league matches this season.

Burnley have only lost one of their last six home encounters against Thursday's opponents Southampton, though that defeat was in last season's fixture when former Clarets striker Danny Ings scored the only goal to secure a 1-0 away win.

With five of their final seven league fixtures against teams currently sitting in the bottom half of the table, Jackson and co will still have faith that they can turn their fortunes around and escape the relegation zone, and victory against an inconsistent Saints outfit cannot be ruled out in midweek.

Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl celebrates with his players after the match on April 16, 2022© Reuters

After a miserable run of five defeats and a draw, Southampton claimed all three points when they beat Champions League-chasing Arsenal 1-0 at St Mary's last weekend.

Jan Bednarek scored the only goal of the game just before half time, and while the Poland international's goal prove to be decisive, an inspired performance from goalkeeper Fraser Forster – who made six saves to keep the Gunners out – was key in helping the Saints march to victory.

Southampton were thrashed 6-0 on home soil against Chelsea a week earlier, but Ralph Hasenhuttl's men quickly put aside their heavy defeat with a win over Arsenal, and they now remain on course for their first top-half finish in the Premier League since 2016-17.

The Saints head to Turf Moor on Thursday looking to claim back-to-back away victories against Burnley for just the second time, having previously beaten the Clarets on the road in 2006 and 2007 when both sides were in the Championship.

Southampton, however, have lost two of their last three Premier League matches against teams in the bottom three, including the 2-1 home defeat against Watford last month, so they will be wary of the threat Burnley could pose on Thursday.

Burnley Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D

Southampton Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W


Team News

Burnley's Ashley Westwood is stretchered off after after sustaining an injury on April 17, 2022© Reuters

Burnley will have to make one enforced change on Thursday after midfielder Ashley Westwood suffered a suspected broken ankle in the draw at West Ham, where he was treated on the pitch for 10 minutes before being taken to hospital.

Josh Brownhill is the most likely candidate to replace Westwood, joining Jack Cork in centre-midfield, while Cornet and Dwight McNeil could keep their places on the flanks.

The only other change Jackson could make to his starting lineup is at right-back, with Connor Roberts hoping to force his way into the side ahead of Matthew Lowton.

Club captain Ben Mee, Erik Pieters (both knee) and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (calf) are also sidelined with injuries and are set to be ruled out for the rest of this month.

As for Southampton, their only injury concern is with goalkeeper Alex McCarthy, who is set to remain out with a hamstring problem.

Hasenhuttl may switch back to a 4-4-2 formation in midweek, after using a 3-4-3 setup against Arsenal, which could see Yan Valery drop out of the starting lineup for an attack-minded player such as Che Adams, who was an unused substitute against the Gunners.

Lyanco played the full 90 minutes against Arsenal, after recovering from an ankle injury which had kept him out since early February, but the Brazilian centre-back could be replaced by Mohammed Salisu in midweek, with Bednarek set to retain his place in the first XI.

Valentino Livramento will be hoping to return at right-back, which will likely see either Romain Perraud or Kyle Walker-Peters start at left-back and the other drop to the bench.

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Roberts, Collins, Tarkowski, Taylor; McNeil, Cork, Brownhill, Cornet; Rodriguez, Weghorst

Southampton possible starting lineup:
Forster; Livramento, Bednarek, Salisu, Walker-Peters; S. Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Romeu, Elyounoussi; Adams, Broja


SM words green background

We say: Burnley 1-1 Southampton

The Clarets and the Saints played out a 2-2 draw at St Mary's earlier this season, and another closely-fought contest could be on the cards on Thursday.

The pressure is all on relegation-threatened Burnley to claim maximum points on home soil, but we expect Hasenhuttl's side to frustrate the hosts and secure a point.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 45.79%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 28.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-0 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Burnley vs Southampton

Burnley
34.7%
Draw
21.7%
Southampton
43.7%
277
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