Two teams struggling at the wrong end of the table lock horns in La Liga on Saturday, as Cadiz welcome Alaves to the Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
Just two wins and 10 points have been claimed by these two sides combined so far this campaign, fewer than each of the top 13 clubs in the division.
Match preview
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Cadiz extended their winless league run to four matches when they suffered a 2-0 defeat away against Espanyol last weekend.
Goals either side of half time from Raul de Tomas and Nico Melamed condemned the visitors to their fourth league loss of the campaign, which has seen them slip down to 16th place in the table.
Competing in just their second ever top-flight campaign, Cadiz have claimed half as many points as they did at this stage of last season, accumulating only seven from their opening nine matches.
Goals have been at a premium on home soil for Alvaro Cervera's side in recent weeks, having failed to find the net in their last three matches at the Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
Cadiz did however score three times at home against Alaves last season, winning 3-1 in January, so Cervera will be hoping his side can produce a similar performance on Saturday, as they aim to return to winning ways.
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Like Cadiz, Alaves have also struggled to score goals so far this campaign and failed to find the net once again last weekend, when they were beaten 1-0 at home against Real Betis.
Babazorros El Glorioso were level until the 89th minute, when substitute Borja Iglesias tapped in from close range to condemn the hosts to their seventh defeat of the season.
Alaves remain in the relegation zone with just three points from a possible 24 available – surprisingly all three were claimed when they beat La Liga holders Atletico Madrid 1-0 last month.
Javier Calleja's side have scored just twice so far this term, fewer than any other side in the Spanish top flight. They also head to Cadiz on Saturday having lost each of their last four away games in the league without scoring.
Alaves are taking part in their sixth successive La Liga campaign this season, but if their form fails to improve in the coming weeks then a return to the Segunda Division could be on the cards.
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Team News
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Cadiz midfielder Jon Ander Garrido remains out due to a knee tendon injury, while Jose Mari is a doubt with a thigh strain and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
Cervera is set to revert to a flat 4-4-2 formation, switching from the 4-1-4-1 system used last weekend.
Former Manchester City striker Alvaro Negredo could be brought back into the starting lineup to play alongside Ruben Sobrino, which would likely see Anthony Lozano drop to the bench.
Alex Fernandez – who has scored in each of his last two league games against Alaves – is expected to play on the left side of midfield, with Savli Sanchez to operate on the opposite flank.
As for Alaves, they have a clean bill of health so Calleja has a fully fit squad to choose from this weekend.
Either Martin Aguirregabiria or Ximo Navarro is expected to play at right-back, joining Matt Miazga, Victor Laguardia and Ruben Duarte in the back four.
Manchester United loanee Facundo Pellistri is set to start on the right side of midfield, while Miguel de la Fuente could be replaced up front by either Mamadou Sylla or John Guidetti.
Cadiz possible starting lineup:
Ledesma; Iza, Haroyan, Fali, Espino; Sanchez, Jonsson, Alarcon, Fernandez; Negredo, Sobrino
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Aguirregabiria, Laguardia, Miazga, Duarte; Pellistri, Moya, Loum, Rioja; Joselu, Sylla
We say: Cadiz 2-1 Alaves
Both Cadiz and Alaves have struggled defensively so far this term so we expect goals at both ends of the pitch on Saturday, as the two sides aim to claim a much-needed victory.
However, the hosts look stronger in the final third and we can see them coming away with all three points at the Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 39.55%. A draw had a probability of 30.5% and a win for Cadiz had a probability of 29.93%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.06%) and 1-2 (7.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.41%), while for a Cadiz win it was 1-0 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alaves would win this match.
