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[monks data]
Canada national football team
World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round
Sep 9, 2021 at 12.30am UK
BMO Field
El Salvador national football team

Canada
3 - 0
El Salvador

Hutchinson (6'), David (11'), Buchanan (59')
Buchanan (18'), Adekugbe (73')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Vidal Larin Hernandez (33')

Preview: Canada vs. El Salvador - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between Canada and El Salvador, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

After coming from behind for a second successive game, Canada will return home to BMO Field in Toronto for their third match in round three of qualifying for World Cup 2022 on Wednesday against El Salvador.

The Canucks are currently third in the group with two points, with La Selecta right on their tail, with two points themselves after a pair of 0-0 draws.


Match preview

Canada manager John Herdman pictured June 24, 2019© Reuters

It has taken them a bit of time to settle into both of their qualifiers in the Octagonal phase, but Canada have been able to overcome some early adversity to earn results.

On Sunday, their manager John Herdman said that they were content to earn a point against their arch-rivals the USA but not happy, feeling that three points was staring them in the face.

Despite having only 28% possession in that match, Canada did have their share of openings, but they failed to capitalise on several occasions.

While they could easily have beaten both Honduras and the US, one characteristic that is evident from this group is their resiliency and never say die attitude, which we have not seen in previous campaigns when they seem to fall apart after conceding.

In their previous three qualifying campaigns, their play away from home proved to be their Achilles heel as they only had one win and a draw in the second to last stage of qualifying for the 2010, 2014 and 2018 World Cups.

The game plan for Canada versus the US was clearly to frustrate them and catch them on the counter, but we should see a much more offensive-minded approach from them on Wednesday, knowing the importance of winning at home and against a side that have made it their primary focus to defend.

Half time adjustments have played a big part for the Canadians in their opening two matches, but given the generational talent that this side possess, they will be eager to earn a victory in the final stage of World Cup qualifying for the first time since beating Costa Rica 1-0 way back in June 1997.

El Salvador's Eric Calvillo in action on March 19, 2021© Reuters

In the final phase of qualifying for the first time since the 2010 campaign, it seems that the strategy for Hugo Perez and La Selecta has been to stay alive.

While this side are clearly well drilled with a strong defensive structure, they have rarely looked interested in taking risks and attacking, firing only two shots on target in their first two games but only allowing three shots on goal.

Against the Hondurans, they were able to have the bulk of the possession on Sunday but still looked stagnant and uninterested in creating a scoring opportunity.

On paper, they may very well be the weakest side remaining in CONCACAF, but they showed at the Gold Cup that they could be successful when getting into wide areas while also being potent in attack.

Perhaps they are playing possum, waiting for a chance to unleash their attack, but at some point, you have to wonder if they will start playing to win rather than simply trying to avoid defeat.

In their last appearance at the final stage of CONCACAF qualifying, in the 2010 campaign, they failed to win a single game away from home, earning only one point on the road, so the fact that they could not win their first two home matches this time out has to be concerning.

They have not had a lot of success playing in the colder climate of Canada, earning only two victories north of the border, although they were able to win in their last visit there, 1-0 in a friendly in 2017.

Canada World Cup Qualifying - North Central America form:
  • D
  • D

Canada form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • D

El Salvador World Cup Qualifying - North Central America form:
  • D
  • D

El Salvador form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • D



Team News

Lille's Jonathan David celebrates scoring their first goal on January 24, 2021© Reuters

Canadian striker Cyle Larin has rescued his side in their first two qualifiers of this round, scoring the equaliser both times, surpassing Dale Mitchell for second in all-time international goals for the Canucks with his 20th strike on Sunday.

After a tough opening match in which he conceded a penalty to Honduras, Tajon Buchanan looked a lot more like himself versus the US, providing a big spark as a second-half substitute, while Alphonso Davies has caused all sorts of problems out wide in one on one situations, as he helped set up the equalising goal on Sunday but will not be available for this one with Canada Soccer, only saying that he is injured and flying back to Germany.

Milan Borjan helped preserve a point for Canada in their opening game against Honduras with an outstanding save in the second half after the match was nodded at 1-1, while Jonathan David needs just one more goal to draw even with Alex Bunbury and Lucas Cavallini for sixth all-time and Junior Hoilett is just two back of David and Ali Gerba in international goals for Canada.

Without their leading goalscorer in this qualifying campaign, David Rugamas, El Salvador, have looked a little lost in the attack, with their last goal coming courtesy of Joaquin Rivas, who scored a brace in their Round of 16 defeat to Qatar at the Gold Cup.

Eriq Zavaleta will be very comfortable playing at BMO Field, where he has earned over 100 caps for Toronto FC, helping them to capture the 2017 MLS Cup, while Enrico Hernandez made just his second international appearance in their draw with Honduras over the weekend.

Darwin Ceren has more international experience than all seven Salvadorian strikers chosen for these qualifiers, with Kevin Reyes, Styven Vasquez and Erick Rivera having only five caps between them, with neither having scored a goal for their country.

Canada possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Miller, Henry, Johnston; Buchanan, Hutchinson, Eustaquio, Laryea; Kaye, C. Larin, David

El Salvador possible starting lineup:
Gonzalez; Tamacas, Zavaleta, Gomez, A. Larin; Ceren, Monterroza, Roldan; Henriquez, Perez, Rivas


SM words green background

We say: Canada 2-0 El Salvador

Expect to see nine or 10 El Salvador players behind the ball for much of the match, and even though that strategy was able to neutralise the Americans and the Hondurans, it is unlikely to work again for 90 minutes, especially away from home.

Canada might have a harder time finding a breakthrough in this one, but they can probably afford to send more players forward given that their opponents are missing their top attacking threat.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Written by
Joel Lefevre

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 58.45%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for El Salvador had a probability of 19.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a El Salvador win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Canada would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Canada vs El Salvador

Canada
67.0%
Draw
15.9%
El Salvador
17.0%
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Lille's Jonathan David celebrates scoring their first goal on January 24, 2021
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