Struggling Cardiff City take on high-flying West Bromwich Albion at the Cardiff City Stadium in Championship action on Tuesday.
The hosts are on a poor run of form after a bright start, whilst the visitors remain unbeaten in the new league campaign so far.
Match preview
© Reuters
After narrowly missing out on the playoffs last season, and a four-match unbeaten run to begin 2021-22, Mick McCarthy's Cardiff will have held high hopes for their Championship campaign.
However, four defeats in their last five matches, and a lack of style in possession, means the pressure is beginning to build on McCarthy to turn his side's fortunes around.
Just one goal scored in the last three, which arrived in the weekend's 5-1 thrashing at the hands of Blackburn Rovers, demonstrates the Bluebirds' struggles in the final third as of late.
Frustrations at the side's reliance on set pieces are adding to the supporters' concerns over recent results and performances too.
A usually well-drilled and hard-to-break-down outfit was well beaten at Ewood Park on Saturday. The defending was unusually poor, with numerous individual and collective errors contributing to a dreadful display overall.
Although the manager is unlikely to sway from the style of play so suddenly, changes in personnel should be expected in midweek against a tough opponent that Cardiff have only faced twice in the last seven years.
© Reuters
As for the visitors, the start to life under new manager Valerien Ismael has been largely successful with his side sitting in second place after an unbeaten start to the new Championship campaign.
The new man has reinvigorated the club after their disappointing relegation from the Premier League at the first time of asking last campaign.
A high-pressing style has been brought in, and despite the expectation that time would be required for adjustment, it has been accepted and taken onboard by the players in an impressive manner.
However, concerns had been raised in recent weeks over an apparent lack of a 'plan B' when sides had matched up the Baggies' formation and style and managed to frustrate them and earn unentertaining draws as a result.
After struggling to draws over Millwall, Derby County and Preston North End, West Brom faced Queens Park Rangers at home last time out.
The unbeaten start appeared to be coming to an end after falling behind in the first minute, but a Karlan Grant double in the second half, including a late winner, completely changed the outlook heading into the trip to Cardiff on Tuesday.
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- D
- D
- W
- L
- W
- D
- D
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Influential forward Lee Tomlin remains absent for the hosts on Tuesday, after numerous injuries over the past year meaning he has yet to feature so far this season.
Midfielder Joe Ralls is doubtful after missing the last couple of games with a groin issue, although he is expected to return to training this week.
Spare striker Isaac Vassell is also a doubt, with his latest injury problems being COVID-19, and a return date currently unknown.
McCarthy is expected to make some changes to his lineup for this match after the dreadful display from his side at the weekend.
Meanwhile, West Brom remain without defender Dara O'Shea for the trip to Cardiff, with the Irishman remaining out for another few months at least.
Matthew Clarke is also expected to be missing from the visitors' backline, with him being a big loss after his impressive performances since arriving on loan in the summer.
Fellow defender Kean Bryan made his debut from the bench against QPR but is expected to take his place with the substitutes again.
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Phillips; Morrison, Flint, McGuinness; Sang, Pack, Vaulks, Bagan; Colwill, Moore, Giles
West Bromwich Albion possible starting lineup:
Johnstone; Ajayi, Bartley, Townsend; Furlong, Livermore, Mowatt, Reach; Robinson, Hugill, Grant
We say: Cardiff City 1-1 West Bromwich Albion
This could well be a match lacking entertainment on Tuesday, with both sides matching each other with similar styles of play and a heavy reliance on set pieces for openings. As a result, a draw where both cancel each other out is a likely outcome, so we are predicting a 1-1 draw here.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Bromwich Albion win with a probability of 49.51%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Cardiff City had a probability of 24.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a West Bromwich Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.56%) and 1-2 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.33%), while for a Cardiff City win it was 1-0 (8.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that West Bromwich Albion would win this match.
