Two sides struggling in their respective divisions meet in FA Cup action on Saturday afternoon when Shrewsbury Town travel to Brunton Park to take on Carlisle United.
The hosts are down in 22nd in the League Two table, whilst their upcoming opponents are slightly better off, sitting 19th in League One.
Match preview
© Reuters
After seven seasons in League Two, mostly spent around mid-table, Carlisle were hoping to push on towards a long-awaited return to the third tier in 2022.
Things have not gone to plan, however, and a shocking run featuring just one win in 16 games saw them sat in the relegation zone.
The Blues clawed their way out of the bottom two on Saturday, though, with a 1-0 win at home to Walsall, thanks to Tristan Abrahams's late winner in the 88th minute.
They then followed that up with a win on penalties over League One Lincoln City in the EFL Trophy during the week and new manager Keith Millen will be hoping this is the start of a turnaround.
His side were given a fairly easy task in the first round of the FA Cup, beating non-league Horsham 2-0 in one of their first matches under Millen's tutelage.
Shrewsbury will likely prove a far tougher nut to crack, despite their recent inconsistent form in League One.
This is the club's seventh consecutive season in the third tier and, bar an outlier with their third-placed finish during the 2017-18 campaign, they have spent the entire time narrowly avoiding relegation.
Last season saw them finish 17th and things look to be going in a similar direction so far this term, with the Shrews sitting in 19th, two points above the relegation zone.
Steve Cotterill's men did manage a 1-0 win at home to Charlton Athletic at the weekend, courtesy of a last-gasp Daniel Udoh winner, and dismantled Stratford Town 5-1 in the FA Cup first round.
There is enough from which to draw a positive team talk, especially considering Shrewsbury won their last two encounters with Carlisle, back in 2014 and 2015, on their way to promotion.
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- L
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Carlisle wide-man and former Manchester United academy prospect Joe Riley will be out for a few weeks with a shoulder injury.
That could see Jordan Gibson continue on the right after a solid performance against Lincoln in midweek as Millen continues with his preferred 4-4-2 formation.
Midfielder Brennan Dickenson also looks set to remain on the sidelines with the manager saying "it's one step forward, one step back at the moment".
Elliot Bennett returned to the Shrews' midfield against Charlton, having served his suspension for a red card against Cheltenham, and the 32-year-old should retain his spot after the strong result upon his return.
Cotterill has generally stuck by his favoured three-at-the-back setup, even through the tough run of results, so expect that to remain the same on Saturday.
Carlisle United possible starting lineup:
Howard; Mellor, Whelan, McDonald, Armer; Gibson, Mellish, Guy, Clough; Abrahams, Alessandra
Shrewsbury Town possible starting lineup:
Marosi; Pennington, Ebanks-Landell, Nurse; Bennett, Vela, Davis, Leahy, Ogbeta; Udoh, Bowman
We say: Carlisle United 1-2 Shrewsbury Town
With both teams showing some signs of progress in their most recent games, this one could go either way depending on who does a better job of keeping up their momentum. We are backing the League One side to draw on their extra class and earn a narrow victory to progress to round three.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shrewsbury Town win with a probability of 40.02%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.53% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shrewsbury Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (10.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Shrewsbury Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Shrewsbury Town.
