Bottom-of-the-table Caykur Rizespor face a challenging trip to high-flying Konyaspor in the Turkish Super Lig on Sunday.
The strugglers are five points adrift of safety but have shown recent signs of improvement, while the Anatolians have surprised many onlookers with their impressive start to the season.
Match preview
A run of seven consecutive defeats from the end of August to mid-October looked to have doomed Rizespor's season before it had even got going.
However, they headed into the international break with a 2-0 win over Alanyaspor – their second victory in three matches.
Manager Hamza Hamzaoglu, who replaced Bulent Uygun in the dugout in September, is a former Konyaspor player and started his coaching career as the club's caretaker boss in 2004.
He has plenty of work to do at Rizespor, particularly as they have lost all six away matches this season, conceding 16 goals and scoring just four.
Konyaspor remain unbeaten at home in 2021-22, taking 14 points from a possible 18 at the Konya Metropolitan Municipality Stadium this season.
The Anatolians finished 11th last season – only two points ahead of Rizespor – but now look on course for their first top-half finish since 2019.
Ilhan Palut's men have lost just once in 12 matches so far and are on a run of three consecutive wins, leaving them outside of the top two on goal difference only.
A brace from Sokol Cikalleshi secured a 2-0 win over Goztepe a fortnight ago and they will hope that the international break does not halt their momentum.
The most recent meeting between the two sides was an enthralling encounter in April that Rizespor won 5-3, scoring three times in 14 second-half minutes to kill the game.
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Team News
Konyaspor are expected to be without winger Zymer Bytyqi, who was forced off in the win over Goztepe a fortnight ago.
Centre-back Abdulkerim Bardakci missed that game through injury but is likely to be available again on Sunday.
Sokol Cikalleshi's brace against Goztepe were his first goals since August, so he will hope to keep his place.
Hamza Hamzaoglu could name an unchanged Rizespor team following victory over Alanyaspor before the international break.
Bryan Dabo's yellow card in that fixture means that he is one booking away from a one-match suspension; Selim Ay and Fabricio Baiano are in the same situation.
Yannick Bolasie will be pushing for a recall after dropping to the bench against Alanyaspor.
Konyaspor possible starting lineup:
Sehic; Skubic, Calik, Bardakci, Guilherme; Hadziahmetovic; Gurler, Cekici, Dikmen, Michalak; Cikalleshi
Caykur Rizespor possible starting lineup:
Akkan; Gonul, Ay, Holmen, Sertel; Baiano, Djokovic; Boldrin, Sabo, Boyd; Pohjanpalo
We say: Konyaspor 2-0 Caykur Rizespor
Despite Rizespor's improved form in the weeks leading up to the international break, it is difficult to see past a Konyaspor victory here. The Anatolians are growing in confidence by the game, are very strong at home and will be keen to maintain the pressure on leaders Trabzonspor.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Konyaspor win with a probability of 60.91%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Caykur Rizespor had a probability of 16.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Konyaspor win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.51%), while for a Caykur Rizespor win it was 0-1 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Konyaspor would win this match.
