Central Coast Mariners play host to Western United on Saturday looking to earn the victory which will secure a home tie in the early stages of the A-League Finals Series.
While the Mariners are guaranteed a spot in the top six, the visitors will finish in 10th position after a disastrous end to the campaign.
Match preview
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Having claimed eight points from five matches, the Mariners squad would have expected to add a further three points to their tally when facing a home fixture with Newcastle Jets.
However, Alen Stajcic's outfit failed to recover from conceding two first-half goals, eventually succumbing by a 2-0 scoreline to the bottom-placed side.
With other results going their way, the Mariners can still finish as high as third and as low as sixth, keeping the pressure on a group of players who have failed to register back-to-back wins since the beginning of March.
Stajcic will want his team to end their dismal home form with just one win coming from their last six fixtures and no goals being scored in their last five halves of football.
On the positive side, a meeting with Western United will be regarded as the perfect contest given the demise of their opponents in recent weeks.
Mark Rudan's side have posted seven successive defeats, finding the back of the net on just three occasions for the loss of 21 goals.
Rudan will take encouragement from the 2-1 reverse at home to Macarthur, but Rudan knows another negative result may lead to a change in the dugout during the off-season.
Western United realistically need to keep a clean sheet to avoid ending the campaign with the second-worst defensive record behind Melbourne Victory.
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Team News
Lewis Miller and Alou Kuol are in line to be recalled to the Mariners XI after their half-time introductions against the Jets.
Jaden Casella may also be given a rare opportunity in the starting lineup in place of Daniel Bouman.
Given the improvements made in the last match, Rudan could opt against making any alterations to his United side.
Adisu Bayew and Dalibor Markovic, just 18 and 19 years of age respectively, may be given their first starts after featuring as substitutes versus Macarthur.
Central Coast Mariners possible starting lineup:
Birighitti; Miller, Hall, Rowles, Clisby; Casella, Bozanic, Stensness, Nisbet; Kuol, Urena
Western United possible starting lineup:
Scott; Imai, Calver, Hamill, Pain; Pierias, Lustica, Skotadis, Guarrotxena, Wales; Diamanti
We say: Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Western United
The Mariners will likely rotate their squad for this contest, theoretically opening the door for the visitors. Nevertheless, we still expect the hosts to come through with maximum points, securing a position in the top four in the process.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 50.87%. A win for Western United had a probability of 24.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Western United win was 0-1 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.
