Seeking to somehow overturn a seemingly insurmountable 4-0 deficit, CFR Cluj welcome Red Star Belgrade to the Dr. Constantin Radulescu Stadium for the second leg of their Europa League playoff tie on Thursday.
The Serbian powerhouses were simply unplayable in the first leg and will aim to secure a routine passage into the group stage, barring an unforeseen collapse.
Match preview
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For all of their domestic dominance since the new season kicked off, Cluj have struggled to compete on the continental stage, suffering a 4-2 aggregate defeat to BSC Young Boys in Champions League qualifying to set up an expected tense affair with Red Star.
However, Marius Sumudica's men had their defence breached within five minutes of the first leg courtesy of Milan Pavkov's finish, and the floodgates opened thereafter as Aleksandar Katai, El Fardou Ben and Mirko Ivanic contributed to a comprehensive success.
Cluj's chances of a third consecutive group-stage appearance are therefore hanging by the thinnest of threads, and a spot in the Europa Conference League surely awaits the seven-time Romanian champions, who have at least kept up their strong league form in spite of their European troubles.
Indeed, the hosts warmed up for the second leg with a 1-0 top-flight success over Arges thanks to Billel Omrani's effort - their sixth win from six in the 2021-22 Liga I - but such a narrow success will prove inconsequential in their bid to somehow turn the tie around this week.
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Rightly lauded for pushing AC Milan all the way during the last 32 of the 2020-21 Europa League, Red Star have their sights firmly set on back-to-back appearances at the proper tournament and are in no position to let their healthy lead slip now.
Despite falling short to Moldovan surprise package Sheriff Tiraspol in Champions League qualifying, Dejan Stankovic's side did not dwell on that disappointing exit as they stormed to an eye-catching win in last week's first leg before extending their remarkable unbeaten run in the Serbian top flight.
Now unbeaten in 44 league matches since going down 2-1 to Backa Topola all the way back in June 2020, 11-time champions Red Star gleaned revenge by marching to a convincing 3-1 success over their former conquerors at the weekend, with Nenad Krsticic, Katai and Ben among the goals.
However, one glimmer of hope for Cluj may be the fact that Red Star have suffered defeats to both Kairat and Sheriff away from home in continental action this term - winning just two of their last six away from home in competitive and friendly fixtures - but the hosts would still need nothing short of a miracle to progress now.
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Team News
Cluj forward Alexandru Paun returns from suspension for this tie after he saw red against Young Boys in Champions League qualifying, and the 26-year-old could take Claudiu Petrila's spot on the left-hand side.
Paun's return is timely with two more attackers in Alexandru Ionita and Alexandru Chipciu out through a doping ban and an ankle injury respectively, while centre-back Andrei Burca is yet to recover from a knee strain.
In the hope of somehow launching an astonishing comeback, Omrani and Gabriel Debeljuh could both feature from the start, while Cristian Manea and Mario Camara should return to the full-back positions.
Red Star midfielder Sekou Sanogo shook off an injury in time to play the full 90 in the first leg and at the weekend, while Stankovic's decision to drop Lois Diony also paid dividends in last week's battle.
Milan Rodic and Guelor Kanga should both be reintroduced to the team after being given 45-minute run-outs off the bench at the weekend, while Pavkov is expected to retain his place up top after repaying Stankovic's faith in him during the first leg.
CFR Cluj possible starting lineup:
Arlauskis; Manea, Ciobotariu, Graovac, Camara; Rodriguez, Sigurjonsson; Dean, Omrani, Paun; Debeljuh
Red Star Belgrade possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Gobeljic, Dragovic, Degenek, Rodic; Sanogo, Ivanic, Kanga; Ben, Pavkov, Katai
We say: CFR Cluj 1-3 Red Star Belgrade (Red Star win 7-1 on aggregate)
This tie is surely dead and buried for Cluj, who will still want to give the home side something to cheer in the form of a goal or two before they prepare for Conference League action.
However, Red Star's red-hot attackers are ready and waiting to punish the hosts should they decide to go for goals and make the second leg an entertaining spectacle, and the Serbian side will aim to make lightning strike twice during another straightforward success en route to the next round.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 41.16%. A win for CFR Cluj had a probability of 34.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.42%). The likeliest CFR Cluj win was 2-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Red Star Belgrade in this match.
