Mexican side Cruz Azul are set to begin their 2024 Leagues Cup campaign when they visit Bank of America Stadium to face Charlotte FC on Thursday.
The hosts suffered a 1-0 defeat against fellow MLS side Philadelphia Union in their opening group match on Sunday, meaning the Crown must win to stay in contention.
Match preview
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Charlotte failed to register a shot on target in their opening Leagues Cup match on Sunday, unable to find a response to Tai Baribo's 33rd-minute goal.
The Crown, formed in 2022, are competing in this tournament for only the second time, having failed to qualify in 2022 before exiting at the quarter-final stage last year.
Dean Smith's side risk elimination at the group stage unless they secure all three points on Thursday in what will be only their second ever meeting with Cruz Azul.
The two teams met for the first time last year in the round of 32 of this competition, which ended goalless before Charlotte progressed on penalties.
Smith's men must now find a way to win within 90 minutes, but they are without a victory in their last three matches across all competitions and have won just one of their last six.
The Thursday hosts have also struggled at home, failing to win in their last two matches at Bank of America Stadium, with only one victory in their last five there.
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Cruz Azul arrive in solid form, currently topping the Mexican top division with three wins and a draw in four matches played, leaving them undefeated.
However, Martin Anselmi's side dropped points for the first time this season in their most recent league outing, salvaging a 1-1 with Toluca, thanks to an 89th-minute equaliser from Angel Sepulveda.
Los Celestes won the inaugural edition of this competition in 2019, defeating fellow Mexican side UANL in the final, and returned last year but exited in the round of 32.
Cruz Azul have played only one away game this season, a 4-0 win over Monterrey in the Liga MX – a performance Anselmi will hope his side can replicate on Thursday.
Team News
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Brazilian Junior Urso is yet to recuperate from a lower leg problem, making him the only absentee for the hosts.
Patrick Agyemang has scored seven MLS goals for Charlotte in 23 appearances, and he will be the man to watch for the Crown once again.
Cruz Azul also have one injury absentee, as Mexican left-back Carlos Alonso Vargas is sidelined with a broken foot.
Ignacio Rivero and Giorgos Giakoumakis started as the front two in their last match, and are expected to retain their spots.
Charlotte FC possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Uronen, Privett, Malanda, Byrne; Diani, Westwood; Tavares, Bronico, Calderon; Swiderski
Cruz Azul possible starting lineup:
Mier; Piovi, Lira, Ditta, Sanchez; Faravelli, Rodriguez, Rivero; Rotondi, Torres, Giakoumakis
We say: Charlotte FC 0-1 Cruz Azul
Charlotte won last year's match against Thursday's opponents via a penalty shootout, but they have been performing poorly in recent games, while Cruz Azul have made a strong start to the season – which is why we predict they will claim all three points here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruz Azul win with a probability of 49.48%. A win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 25.3% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruz Azul win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.43%) and 0-2 (8.99%). The likeliest Charlotte FC win was 1-0 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
