Charlotte FC will kick off their maiden campaign in Major League Soccer with a difficult away trip to DC United on Saturday.
A mainstay in MLS for a number of years, the contrast between the two sides could hardly be greater, with Charlotte hoping to make an impact on the opening night.
Match preview
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Having had their MLS debut delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Charlotte are eventually ready to kick life off as a club in the Eastern Conference.
However, Charlotte have not necessarily enjoyed the exact preparations that they would have wished ahead of the opening weekend of the season, with a number of questions hanging over the balance of the squad.
With many already tipping Charlotte to finish bottom of the Eastern Conference, the Queen City will be keen to make an impression on debut.
While the playoffs remain an unlikely option, Charlotte will be hoping to establish themselves sooner rather than later in MLS.
Their opening match is about as tough as it comes, with the Queen City tasked with taking on four-time MLS Cup winners DC United.
One of the most successful teams in MLS history, DC United have gone two seasons without qualifying for the playoffs, with a change in fortunes needed for the side from the capital.
In fact, it is now seven years since DC United progressed past the first round of the playoffs, with 2022 the year that Black-and-Red supporters hope that changes.
DC United will be hoping to avoid embarrassment on the opening night, with Charlotte eyeing up a famous win on their MLS debut.
Team News
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As it is their first season in the division, most of Charlotte's players are new to the side, with a number of standout talents acquired by the MLS debutants.
Most of their goals are expected to come from Karol Swiderski, who has joined the club from Greek Super League side PAOK.
At the opposite end, Anton Walkes has arrived at Charlotte as their main defensive option, having been excluded from Atlanta United's protected draft list.
Experience will come in the form of Christian Fuchs, who is expected to feature heavily for Charlotte throughout the campaign.
For DC United, their best acquisition has come in the shape of Brad Smith, who arrives in the Capital from Seattle Sounders for a whopping $750,000.
DC United have been able to fund the deal through the sale of Kevin Paredes, who left MLS for Bundesliga side Wolfsburg in a deal worth $7 million.
DC United possible starting lineup:
Hamid; Najar, Birnbaum, Pines; Gressel, Canouse, Nyeman, Smith; Flores, Robertha; Estrada
Charlotte Independence possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Lindsay, Walkes, Sobocinski, Fuchs; Alcivar, Ruiz, Franco; Reyna, Swiderski, Ortiz
We say: DC United 3-0 Charlotte Independence
While their optimism may be high, the expectations for Charlotte are considerably low.
Expect DC United to stroll to a comfortable victory in their season opener, with Charlotte likely to need some time to organise themselves.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 80.47%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Charlotte Independence had a probability of 6.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.3%) and 1-0 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.1%), while for a Charlotte Independence win it was 0-1 (2.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for DC United in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for DC United.
