Charlton Athletic welcome Crawley Town to The Valley on Tuesday for their first EFL Trophy match of the 2021-22 competition.
The two teams will be joined by Leyton Orient and Southampton Under-21s in the Southern Group G, with the top two progressing to the knockouts.
Match preview
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For the fourth time in the last five years, Charlton are competing in the third tier of English football and, on the eve of this season, expectation had risen for a positive campaign.
Nigel Adkins - who replaced Lee Bowyer in March - took charge for the final 10 league games of last season, losing only once, with the Addicks narrowly missing out on a playoff spot by goal difference in seventh place.
The 56-year-old was a popular appointment among the Charlton fanbase, but things started badly and optimism has been fading rapidly after four consecutive losses, with the team sitting in the relegation zone.
There is a ray of hope, however, after a 2-0 win at home to fellow strugglers Crewe Alexandra on Saturday, with first-half goals from Diallang Jaiyesimi and Jayden Stockley moving them up to 19th in the League One table.
Adkins will hope to build some momentum from that result and produce a positive start to their EFL Trophy journey, with a win over a side struggling themselves in the division below.
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In their seventh year in League Two, Crawley have established themselves as a solid mid-table side in recent seasons - certainly under the management of John Yems - but things are not going to plan so far this year.
The Reds find themselves down in 20th, with just one win from their first four league games, and are already out of the EFL Cup, having lost to Gillingham on penalties.
After an action-packed - and most of that action not what Crawley fans would want to see - 6-3 loss to Forest Green Rovers, Yems will have been pleased to witness his side keep a clean sheet against Northampton on Saturday.
They were unable to find the net themselves, however, playing out a somewhat dull 0-0. The team will have to find a way of upping the tempo in games, without losing control of them - certainly if they are to progress in this competition.
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Team News
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Charlton's summer recruit Craig MacGillivray is set to continue in goal, after a particularly strong performance in the last game, and will likely be protected by central defenders Ryan Inniss and Norwich City loanee Akin Famewo.
Left-back Ben Purrington is still recovering from a knock during pre-season and is joined by Jake Forster-Caskey, Ronnie Schwartz and Alex Gilbey on the sidelines.
Archie Davies's introduction at right-back in an improved defensive performance against Northampton should see him retain his spot in the Crawley backline.
Nicholas Tsaroulla and Thomas Nichols are Yems's only certain absentees, although Jordan Tunnicliffe and Samuel Matthews are also injury doubts.
Charlton Athletic possible starting lineup:
MacGillivray; Matthews, Inniss, Famewo, Gunter; Kirk, Watson, Morgan, Jaiyesimi; Stockley, Washington
Crawley Town possible starting lineup:
Morris; Davies, Craig, Francillette, Dallison; Frost, Hessenthaler, Powell, Ferry; Ashford, Nadesan
We say: Charlton Athletic 2-0 Crawley Town
Charlton should have enough class to see off Crawley here, particularly with a bit of belief after their recent win. They can also find some positives in the history books, having triumphed 2-0 over the Reds in their most recent meeting back in 2017.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 43.19%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 31.79% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Charlton Athletic would win this match.
