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Chile national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 15, 2021 at 1am UK
 
Venezuela national football team

Chile
3 - 0
Venezuela

Pulgar (18', 37'), Brereton Diaz (73')
Pulgar (13'), Valdes (48')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Hernandez (8'), Gonzalez (88')

Preview: Chile vs. Venezuela - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Chile and Venezuela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Both adrift of the top five places in South American World Cup qualifying, hosts Chile welcome a buoyant Venezuela to Las Condes on Friday.

With even a playoff spot looking beyond the reach of either nation, they both come into the game following rare victories in the lengthy qualification process.


Match preview

Chile's Arturo Vidal in action on June 25, 2021© Reuters

The unlikely international career of Blackburn Rovers' Ben Brereton Diaz continued apace at the weekend, as the reborn striker netted his second goal for Chile in just their second win on the road to Qatar 2022.

Once the CONMEBOL section finally comes to an end - deciding the four automatic qualifiers and the fifth-placed playoff entrant - his opening goal in the 2-0 win over Paraguay may carry as much significance as his first: a winner at the Copa America during the summer, which ensured that La Roja made it out of their group.

Though Chilean prospects remain wafer thin, as they still trail fifth by five points, they are at least alive - despite a previous winless run of seven matches in all competitions - after a 2-0 defeat to Peru last Friday.

At risk of failing to qualify for the second successive tournament, having missed out in Russia three years ago, the squad overseen by former Real Sociedad coach Martin Lasarte simply must continue to post wins and hope that others falter.

Lasarte, who took charge of La Roja in February, has come out on top in only three of his 13 matches so far, so will be under no illusions that victory over Venezuela is essential this week - particularly after they lost the reverse fixture in November despite dominating the ball.

Venezuela team huddle before the match on June 13, 2021© Reuters

After several further attempts, a second success of the campaign was posted by Venezuela on Sunday, as their 2-1 win against the Chileans was finally added to by victory over Ecuador in Caracas.

Having fallen behind before the break, following Enner Valencia's penalty for the visitors, La Vinotinto fought back to draw level in the 45th minute and then edged ahead through Eduard Bello; giving them a lead they would never relinquish.

That well-earned three points came just days after they gave runaway group leaders Brazil quite a fright, as Venezuela led up until the 71st minute, when Marquinhos headed home an equaliser. Two further goals for the Selecao followed as legs began to tire, and condemned Leonardo Gonzalez's team to their sixth successive loss.

Named interim manager of the national side in August - replacing the sacked Jose Peseiro, who departed claiming he had not been paid for several months - Gonzalez has a sizeable task on his hands even to reclaim a little pride following some sparse years for one of the continent's traditional minnows.

Even with Sunday's win, Venezuela remain at the foot of the table, eight points adrift of Colombia in fifth. Therefore, when they go in search of a double over Chile at the compact Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, they will no longer be dreaming of a first-ever World Cup qualification.

Chile World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W

Chile form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W

Venezuela World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W

Venezuela form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W



Team News

Chile manager Martin Lasarte reacts on June 4, 2021© Reuters

Due to a lack of genuine squad depth, Chile are unlikely to make significant changes to their selection at the weekend, with veteran midfielder Arturo Vidal once again providing the heartbeat of the side.

He should be joined by Erick Pulgar in the centre, but Charles Aranguiz was sent off for a second bookable offence against Paraguay, so must serve a suspension. Up front, in-form Ben Brereton Diaz will feature alongside Alexis Sanchez, who has registered 46 goals from 141 caps compared to Brereton's two in seven.

In addition to Inter pair Vidal and Sanchez, the experienced trio of captain Claudio Bravo, Mauricio Isla and Gary Medel boast over 400 international appearances between them, and only the latter is expected to miss out on Friday.

Venezuela, meanwhile, must take to the field without some stalwarts of their own, as strikers Salomon Rondon (82 caps) and Josef Martinez (55) were not selected for the squad this month. Therefore, Dynamo Kiev's Eric Ramirez is set to lead the line once again, with support from wide men Darwin Machis and Eduard Bello, who both scored on Sunday.

Captain Tomas Rincon will start in midfield alongside Jose Martinez on Friday, though Cristian Casseres provides an option should coach Leonardo Gonzalez require some fresh legs in the engine room.

In goal, despite being a mere understudy at Lens this term, Wuilker Farinez is the trusted last line of defence and should feature behind an unchanged back four.

Chile possible starting lineup:
Bravo; Isla, Maripan, Diaz, Vegas; Nunez, Vidal, Pulgar, Meneses; Brereton Diaz, Sanchez

Venezuela possible starting lineup:
Farinez; Hernandez, A. Martinez, Ferraresi, O. Gonzalez; Rincon, J. Martinez; Bello, Machis, Penaranda; Ramirez


SM words green background

We say: Chile 2-1 Venezuela

Two of the lowest-scoring nations in South American qualifying to date will be freed up somewhat in the final third, after both netting twice in their respective weekend wins.

Chile's forward threat, though, contains some sharper tools, plus without home advantage, Venezuela are less likely to take the initiative and could pay the price.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chile win with a probability of 55.85%. A win for Venezuela had a probability of 22.16% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chile win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Venezuela win was 1-2 (5.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chile would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Chile vs Venezuela

Chile
84.9%
Draw
4.3%
Venezuela
10.8%
93
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CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1281325
2 Uruguay flag Uruguay1255220
3 Ecuador flag Ecuador1264219
4 Colombia Colombia1254319
5 Brazil Brazil1253418
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1245317
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1241713
8 Venezuela Venezuela1226412
9 Chile Chile122379
10 Peru flag Peru121477

CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1281325
2 Ecuador flag Ecuador1264222
3 Uruguay flag Uruguay1255220
4 Colombia Colombia1254319
5 Brazil Brazil1253418
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1245317
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1241713
8 Venezuela Venezuela1226412
9 Chile Chile122379
10 Peru flag Peru121477


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