Colchester United will play host to Leyton Orient on Tuesday in a game of major importance at the bottom end of the League Two table.
The hosts currently sit just two points above the relegation zone, while their visitors are only a point better off in 17th place.
Match preview
Despite a relatively commendable start to the season, Colchester United now find themselves firmly in the fight for League Two survival after a poor run of form in recent months.
Following five straight defeats, The U's did briefly stop the rot by earning eight points from a run of four games in January and February after the departure of Hayden Mullins, but they have been unable to sustain that resurgence, having failed to record another victory since.
The Essex outfit now find themselves without a win and with just two points from their last five league outings under the management of Wayne Brown, most recently salvaging a draw against an Oldham Athletic side pushing to jump out of the relegation zone as Jordan Clark turned the ball into his own net in the second half.
As a result of their poor form in recent months, Colchester have dropped to 21st spot, just two points above the bottom two, and, with Carlisle United and Oldham both in hot pursuit after positive showings, they will know they need a result quickly to strengthen their position in the fight to avoid the drop.
Similarly to their opponents, Leyton Orient will have been relatively pleased with their start to the season, and, with a tally of 31 points from their opening 20 games, the threat of relegation will have not seemed a real concern whatsoever.
However, the form of the O's has taken a dramatic dip since then, with the London outfit failing to win any of their last 11 league games and picking up just two points in the process.
The latter of those draws came against Bradford City at the beginning of February, and Leyton Orient have gone on to lose five straight games since, with manager Kenny Jackett departing recently as a result.
In their first game without him at the helm and with Matt Harrold taking temporary charge, the O's hosted Carlisle United at the weekend, and their fortunes did not change as Omari Patrick hit the only goal of the game to see the 22nd-placed visitors take all three points, dragging Leyton Orient further into the mix at the bottom of the division.
As a result, Leyton Orient now sit just two points above Carlisle and three points above the relegation zone, and, with several sides at the bottom gaining momentum, they will be desperate to put an end to their winless run and increase the gap between themselves and the bottom two.
- W
- L
- D
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
Team News
Colchester have plenty of quality and experience to call upon going forward, with the likes of John Akinde, Freddie Sears and Luke Hannant vying for starts.
Alan Judge offers a creative spark in midfield, while veteran Cole Skuse will act as a shield for the defence.
That defence will be led by former Ipswich Town captain Luke Chambers, who will play alongside Tommy Smith in front of goalkeeper Shamal George.
Leyton Orient are without forward Frank Nouble, who is ineligible to play against his former club after making a loan move from Colchester to Brisbane Road in January.
They will also be missing Theo Archibald through suspension, after the winger was sent off in their recent defeat to Carlisle.
Harry Smith will continue to lead the line, having hit 11 League Two goals this term, while experienced midfielder Darren Pratley continues to be a key man in the engine room.
Colchester United possible starting lineup:
George; Coxe, Smith, Chambers, Kenlock; Judge, Skuse, Chilvers; Sears, Akinde, Edwards
Leyton Orient possible starting lineup:
Vigouroux; Khan, Ray, Beckles, Wood; Coleman, Pratley, Kyprianou; Drinan, Smith, Sotiriou
We say: Colchester United 1-1 Leyton Orient
Given both sides are severely lacking form recently, we do not see either prevailing over the other on Tuesday.
Although both will see it as a good chance to get three points against fellow strugglers, we see the teams as evenly-matched and predict a share of the spoils.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 38.26%. A win for Leyton Orient had a probability of 34.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Leyton Orient win was 0-1 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
