Aiming to reach the quarter-finals of the Under-20 World Cup for the first time as an independent nation, Slovakia Under-20s meet Colombia Under-20s in Wednesday evening's last-16 affair at the Estadio San Juan del Bicentenario in San Juan.
Hector Cardenas's side booked their spot in the knockout rounds via a first-placed finish in Group C, while their European counterparts progressed by the skin of their teeth courtesy of their third-placed ranking.
Match preview
Struggling to emulate the feats of near neighbours Argentina and Brazil - who have 11 Under-20 World Cup titles between them - Colombia have at least kick-started their bid for a maiden international crown at this level in an ideal manner.
Joining Israel, Japan and Senegal in Group B, Colombia recorded a pair of 2-1 wins over the two former nations - albeit while having to come from behind in both games - before shaking hands on a solitary point with Senegal, once again conceding first before Oscar Cortes levelled right at the death.
However, there was little riding on that encounter for Cardenas's men on Saturday, as back-to-back wins in their opening two group matches had already rubber-stamped a top-two finish for Colombia, who ultimately ended up three points better off than Israel in second spot.
One-time semi-finalists in the 2003 edition - winning the bronze medal that year - Colombia have since suffered three last-16 exits and two quarter-final eliminations on the biggest stage, going out in the final eight during the 2019 Under-20 World Cup.
A run of just one defeat from their last nine matches in all competitions serves as a reason for optimism this time around, and while La Tricolor are yet to plug the gaps in their leaky defence, Slovakia cannot rest on their laurels should they also draw first blood versus their last-16 opponents.
A 4-0 thrashing of Fiji in their opening group game ended up proving priceless for Slovakia, who came up short in their final two group matches with Ecuador and the United States by an aggregate scoreline of 4-1 but still punched their ticket into the knockout rounds.
Goals from Cade Cowell and Niko Tsakiris propelled the USA to a comfortable 2-0 win over Albert Rusnak's men on Friday, but their three-point haul was sufficient to send them through as one of the four best third-placed teams, pipping France and Japan to a knockout berth on goal difference.
A less emphatic win against Fiji could have therefore brought Slovakia's journey to an early end, but the Little Falcons have been offered a second bite at the cherry in what is only their second appearance at the Under-20 World Cup as an independent nation.
Slovakia managed to reach the last 16 in their inaugural appearance at the competition, but they lost 2-1 to Brazil at this stage courtesy of Dudu's golden goal and will no doubt boast the underdogs tag heading into their first-ever Under-20 match with Colombia, while either England or Italy will face the winners for a place in the semi-finals.
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Team News
Colombia skipper Gustavo Puerta had to be taken off with an unspecified injury in their recent success over Japan, but the Nurnberg midfielder quickly shook off his affliction and completed 57 minutes of Saturday's draw with Senegal.
Cardenas should be working with an identical group of players from their final group game as a result, and the Colombia boss could make a few alterations to keep his players fresh, with Watford man Yaser Asprilla a candidate to return in the final third.
Seventeen-year-old goalkeeper Alexei Rojas plies his trade in the Arsenal academy, but Luis Marquinez is set to get the nod in between the sticks for La Tricolor.
As for Slovakia, Rusnak is not reported to be working around any injury concerns for the knockout rounds, but the 49-year-old has shown a ruthless streak when it comes to in-game management and brought three players off at half time in their defeat to the USA.
Adam Griger, Mario Sauer and Adam Gazi's spots could all be in jeopardy after the trio failed to return for the second half on Friday, as the likes of Nino Marcelli and Timotej Jambor eye recalls to the three-pronged attack.
Colombia Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Marquinez; Ocampo, Mantilla, Alvarez, Salazar; Luna, Torres, Puerta; Cortes, Angel, Asprilla
Slovakia Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Hrdina; Kopasek, Bagin, Kosa, Sikula; Gajdos, Snajder, Szolgai; Marcelli, Jambor, Gazi
We say: Colombia Under-20s 2-1 Slovakia Under-20s
Colombia have not exactly been a force to be reckoned with in the defensive third, but the Tricolor responded admirably to going behind in their three group games and can trouble an equally permeable Slovakia backline.
Slovakia can count themselves fortunate to even be in the last 16, and their run will likely come to an end against the unbeaten Colombians, but Cardenas's men will not be many people's picks to get the better of England or Italy in the last eight.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovakia Under-20s win with a probability of 57.31%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Colombia Under-20s had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovakia Under-20s win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.81%) and 0-2 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.37%), while for a Colombia Under-20s win it was 2-1 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Colombia Under-20s would win this match.
Ben Knapton
