Reigning Major League Soccer Cup champions Columbus Crew will continue their pursuit of a place in the 2021 playoffs when they welcome CF Montreal to Lower.com Field on Sunday.
Four points off seventh place and with only one win in four, the Crew will be desperate for an upturn in form when they face their Canadian opponents.
Match preview
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Having finished third in the 2020 Eastern Conference, before going on to win the MLS Cup with an emphatic 3-0 victory over Seattle Sounders in the final, the Crew have been below par so far this year and could miss out on a playoff spot.
A run of six consecutive defeats between July and mid-September had set the Crew back, yet a much-needed win against the New York Red Bulls was followed up by a welcome point against Eastern Conference leaders New England Revolution last time out.
Caleb Porter has enjoyed a successful stint as Columbus manager since taking over in 2019 and approaching his 100th match in charge of the Crew, the two-time MLS Cup-winning coach will be eager to see his side make a late dash for the playoffs.
The Washington-born manager could even add to his and Columbus' trophy cabinet when they face Cruz Azul in the Campeones Cup next week – an annual match contested by the previous winners of the MLS Cup and Mexico's Liga MX.
Whether or not that fixture will influence his team selection for the visit of Montreal remains to be seen, however, with just one win in their last five meetings with the Canadian side, Porter will be wary of slipping further down the table.
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Unlike Columbus, Montreal's current league situation looks a lot brighter, with Wilfried Nancy's side targeting a spot in the CONCACAF Champions League via the Canadian Championship.
Progressing to the semi-finals of the competition with a comprehensive 4-0 win over HFX Wanderers in midweek, Montreal will have high hopes of defending their Canadian Championship crown and securing continental qualification.
Whilst they are unable to qualify for the Champions League via their MLS finish, Montreal will still be keen to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2016, with Nancy chasing a maiden MLS Cup triumph.
Rivals Toronto FC are the only Canadian side to lift the MLS Cup and Montreal will be looking to snatch the bragging rights away from their Easterly neighbours.
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Team News
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Ballou Tabla has not made an appearance for Montreal all season following a groin injury picked up in April and the winger will miss the visit across the border.
Mason Toye suffered a shoulder injury in Montreal's recent victory over the Red Bulls and has missed every match since.
Robert Orri Thorkelsson is yet to feature for the visitors since joining in the summer and the Icelandic defender is still missing for Nancy's men.
Aljaz Struna made 11 consecutive appearances at the start of the season, yet a frustrating run of injury has seen the defender feature a handful of times since early August, with the Slovenian a doubt once again.
Suffering a cruciate ligament rupture at the back end of August, Kevin Molino is in the early weeks of what will likely be a long road to recovery for the Trinidadian winger.
Artur has made just six appearances for the Crew since the start of the season and following surgery for a hip problem, the Brazilian midfielder's return should come sooner rather than later.
Perry Kitchen is another Crew player who has suffered with injury this season and the 29-year-old's return is also etching ever closer following a medial collateral ligament tear.
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Abdul-Salaam, Jonathan, Williams, Valenzuela; Etienne, Nagbe, Hairston, Matan; Berry, Zardes
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Pantemis; Waterman, Camacho, Miller; Choiniere, Wanyama, Piette, Bassong; Torres, Quioto, Mihailovic
We say: Columbus Crew 1-2 CF Montreal
Two-times winners of the MLS Cup, the Crew may have been hoping for a better defence of their title and still could make a late dash for the playoffs.
However they have not looked like the same side that triumphed just less than a year ago and the form table suggests that Montreal could leave the States with a precious victory.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 43.4%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 0-1 (8.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.
