Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Salvador win with a probability of 46.44%. A win for Saint Vincent & the Grenadines had a probability of 29.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a El Salvador win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.89%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Saint Vincent & the Grenadines win was 2-1 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that El Salvador would win this match.