Croatia's hopes of automatically qualifying for the 2022 World Cup will go down to the wire this week, starting with Thursday's trip to Malta.
The 2018 World Cup runners-up are currently second to Russia in Group H, but they still have to host the leaders in the final round of matches.
Match preview
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Three wins in a row without conceding ensured Croatia's fate was in their own hands until the most recent round of fixtures when drawing 2-2 with Slovakia.
Croatia twice fell behind in that game and needed a Luka Modric strike 19 minutes from time to ensure they dodged a first defeat since losing to Spain at Euro 2020.
With Russia winning four on the spin, Zlatko Dalic's men now trail the previous tournament hosts by two points heading into the penultimate round of games.
Russia are at home to bottom side Cyprus, so Croatia will not be realistically relying on any favours elsewhere on Thursday.
All they can do is see off Malta, ideally by a comfortable margin to bolster their goal difference, to set up a final-day shootout with Russia in Split.
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Malta will consider anything other than a resounding defeat in Ta' Qali as a positive given that they are ranked 173rd by FIFA.
The Falcons did manage to snap a three-game losing run without scoring in their most recent outing, however, thanks to a 2-2 draw away at Cyprus.
Jurgen Degabriele struck in the 98th minute in that contest to keep Malta above Cyprus on goal difference in fifth place.
Devis Mangia's side host Slovakia in the final round of matches and know that one point from these remaining two games should see them avoid bottom spot.
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Team News
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Chelsea midfielder Mateo Kovacic is a big-name absentee from the Croatia squad due to injury, while Borna Barisic is suspended for this match.
Kovacic, who started alongside Modric and Marcelo Brozovic in the 3-0 win against Cyprus last time out, is expected to be replaced by Mario Pasalic here.
Andrej Kramaric has not exactly been scoring goals for fun this season, but he should get the nod up top once again, with Ivan Perisic providing support from the left.
As for Malta, Steve Borg - who plies his trade for Maltese Premier League side Gzira United - will miss his side's November double-header.
Enrico Pepe and Zach Muscat will hope to retain their places in the back three, which should be completed by the returning Kurt Shaw.
Malta possible starting lineup:
Bonello; Attard, Pepe, Muscat; Attard, Caruana, Teuma, Camenzuli; J.Mbong, P.Mbong; Montebello
Croatia possible starting lineup:
Livakovic; Stanisic, Vida, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modric, Brozovic; Ivanusec, Pasalic, Perisic; Kramaric
We say: Malta 0-4 Croatia
Should the unthinkable happen and Croatia fail to beat lowly Malta, top spot may well be out of the question before the final-day visit of Russia.
Dalic's side will therefore be well motivated on Thursday, and we can see this being a pretty emphatic away win in Ta' Qali.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 55.36%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Malta had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.87%) and 1-2 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%), while for a Malta win it was 1-0 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-7 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.
