Two Serie A sides in desperate need of three points will lock horns on Sunday afternoon as basement club Crotone host coronavirus-hit Torino in a crucial relegation battle.
While Il Toro have had to close their training ground after 10 positive cases in their camp, Crotone, who are hoping to avoid losing eight consecutive league matches, are to prepare for the game to go ahead as scheduled, despite the possibility that the fixture may be postponed.
Match preview
© Reuters
Torino are hoping to play their first match in 16 days after seeing two Serie A fixtures postponed due to an outbreak of coronavirus at the club, which has seen eight players and two members of staff test positive.
After seeing their home clash with Sassuolo called off last week, their away trip to Lazio was then controversially abandoned on Tuesday. Even though the Lazio team announced their starting lineup and arrived at the Stadio Olimpico, the Torino squad were over 600km away in quarantine.
The Granata were instructed to self-quarantine by the Turin local health service until midnight on Tuesday, however the Lega Serie A council unanimously decided in an urgent meeting on the same day that the game in Rome should go ahead as planned, which saw the situation descend into chaos.
Torino could now be handed a 3-0 defeat and potentially docked points for failing to turn up for the scheduled kickoff – a punishment they are expected to appeal and one that was similarly handed to Napoli, who successful appealed after being advised to stay home and not travel to face Juventus back in October.
Il Toro have yet to lose under new boss Davide Nicola since his appointment in mid-January, drawing four games and winning their most recent Serie A match 1-0 away at fellow relegation rivals Cagliari.
However, Cagliari have since won their last two matches, which has seen Torino fall into the bottom three, one point behind the Islanders, although the Granata do have two games in hand.
If the match on Sunday is to go ahead, Nicola will be hoping that his depleted squad can claim three precious points against another struggling Serie A outfit, which could move them out of the drop zone if Cagliari fail to win against Sampdoria.
© Reuters
After losing their seventh successive league match to Atalanta on Wednesday night, Crotone's confidence seemingly matches their current position in Serie A – rock bottom.
The 5-1 demolition by La Dea means that the Pythagoreans remain the only Italian top-flight side yet to win away from home this season, accumulating just two points on their travels.
Serse Cosmi – who took charge of his first game against Atalanta after the sacking of Giovanni Stroppa on Monday – has the monumental task of steering his Crotone side closer to safety but with a nine-point gap to 17th-placed Cagliari and with 13 games left to play, Cosmi's challenge may prove too difficult to overcome.
Defensive frailties have been major issue for Crotone throughout this campaign, conceding 62 goals from their 25 matches played and they currently sit with a -38 goal difference, the worst of any side in the division.
The Pythagoreans are also on their worst losing run in the top-flight but will fancy their chances of ending this miserable spell when they face Torino, who like themselves sit in the relegation zone with only three Serie A victories to their name.
Their last encounter with Il Toro ended as a goalless draw back in November but if Crotone can claim all three points on Sunday, it should provide a massive boost to Cosmi's squad.
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- D
- D
- D
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Torino's club captain and top goalscorer Andrea Belotti is one of eight plyers self-isolating along with Daniele Baselli, Bremer, Alessandro Buongiorno, Karol Linetty, Nicola Murru, Nicolas Nkoulou and Wilfried Singo.
Nicola's preparations are not ideal heading into Sunday's match and fielding a competitive starting lineup is likely to be a tall order.
If the match does go ahead, midfielder Rolando Mandragora could continue in midfield ahead of Linetty, while striker Simone Zaza will be relied upon to score the goals in the absence of Belotti.
For Crotone, Koffi Djidji (muscle) Ahmad Benali (thigh), Luca Cigarini (knee) and Milos Vulic (muscle) are all ruled out through injury.
Cosmi continued with a 3-5-2 formation in midweek – a system that was used in Stroppa's final game in charge – and he is expected to stick with the same approach this weekend.
Forward Simy, who is the club's top goalscorer with eight, including a strike against Atalanta in midweek, is set to lead the line once again with Samuel Di Carmine.
Crotone possible starting lineup:
Cordaz; Cuomo, Golemic, Luperto; Pereira, Zanellato, Milona, Reca; Messias; Di Carmine, Simy
Torino possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Izzo, Lyanco, Rodriguez; Vojvoda, Lukic, Mandragora, Rincon, Ansaldi; Bonazzoli, Zaza
We say: Crotone 2-1 Torino
Crotone have previously faced Torino five times in Serie A but have never beaten them; the visitors are set to field a depleted lineup, though, the hosts will believe that Sunday's match is one of their best chances to claim all three points in their quest for survival.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torino win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 32.55% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torino win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Crotone win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
