Inter Milan could strike the decisive blow in their quest for the Scudetto on Saturday, as they visit Serie B-bound Crotone, seeking three points to inch them closer to glory.
While Inter would be confirmed as champions should they win and nearest rivals Atalanta fail to take maximum points on Sunday, their hosts may see their inevitable return to the second tier formalised at Stadio Ezio Scida.
Match preview
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Continuing their remarkable home record this year, it took a closely contested 90 minutes to seal Inter's latest victory - against Verona at San Siro - with the away side having an equal share of possession and as many shots on goal as Antonio Conte's table-topping team.
For the second time in as many weeks, it was wing-back Matteo Darmian who was the unlikely scorer of the game's only goal - firing home in the 76th minute to end any Hellas hopes of a taking a point back to Veneto.
Inter had previously edged closer to a first Serie A crown since 2010 with their 1-1 draw at Spezia, which took them 10 points clear of closest rivals Milan at the top of the table - but with their San Siro-sharing cousins failing again at the weekend, the chance to seal success has now moved within touching distance for the Nerazzurri.
Unbeaten in 17 league games - their longest such streak in a single season since 2008 - Conte and company have swept clear of the chasing pack since the turn of the year and they can even claim their 19th Scudetto by the first weekend in May.
While their attacking stars, such as Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez - both of whom have seen their penalty-box potency dip of late - have gained much of the applause, it has been Inter's dogged defence which has seen them close to getting over the line. With just 29 goals conceded all season long, the back three - or, when necessary, a rigid five - has excelled in the second half of the campaign.
As they prepare to finally topple outgoing champions Juventus from their throne, this week Inter come up against a polar opposite side, against whom they have scored 13 goals in five previous encounters - including the 6-2 thumping in January which set the tone for their sparkling late-winter spell.
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Crotone will attempt to achieve the improbable on Saturday, as they could not only post their first back-to-back Serie A successes since April 2018, but also keep their vanishingly faint hopes of top-flight survival alive with an unlikely victory over Inter.
The Calabrian outfit at least readied themselves for the ultimate test by winning away from home for the first time in the 2020-21 campaign last week, following an entertaining 4-3 defeat of fellow strugglers Parma last weekend.
The bottom two went head-to-head, with Crotone knowing that a loss would seal their fate, as 19-goal top scorer Simy starred again with a well-taken brace - making him the highest-scoring Nigerian in Serie A history.
Since coach Serse Cosmi's recent arrival in the dugout, the unheralded striker has scored 12 goals in nine appearances to take him within three of surpassing an Inter old boy, Samuel Eto'o (21), as the only African player to reach 20 goals in a single Serie A season - which the Cameroon star achieved in an unforgettable 2010-11 campaign.
Certainly, the Squali are fulfilling Cosmi's stated aim of finishing their brief stay in the Italian elite "with dignity", thanks to some explosive performances from their attacking trio of Simy, Adam Ounas and club captain Junior Messias: a total of 45 goals at either end in their nine most recent fixtures, has demonstrated that at least Crotone are going down with a fight.
Such a stance has led to them conceding a staggering 83 league goals so far though, as they now come up against one of the deadliest duos in Calcio - with both Lukaku and Martinez overdue to add to their already impressive tallies.
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Team News
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Antonio Conte is often reluctant to tinker with a winning formula and, as Inter have few injury concerns ahead of Saturday's game, their starting XI could remain unchanged.
Only defender Aleksandar Kolarov is definitely ruled out with a muscle injury and veteran midfielder Arturo Vidal's return from knee surgery has been a protracted process, so the Chile international may not be involved once again. In his continued absence, Stefano Sensi is set to be offered an increasingly rare opportunity to start.
Despite scoring crucial winners twice within the space of a fortnight, Matteo Darmian is not guaranteed an opportunity to feature on the flank, as Achraf Hakimi and Ashley Young are also hoping to start out wide - with Ivan Perisic another possible option.
Home coach Serse Cosmi is similarly untroubled by absences, as only reserve striker Samuel Di Carmine is out injured for Crotone, while Luca Marrone remains troubled by a calf issue.
With nothing to lose and infamy to gain, Cosmi may opt to stick with his recent attacking outlook, as he matches up against Inter's 3-5-2 formation: red-hot striker Simy being supported by the deeper-lying wizadry of Adam Ounas and skipper Junior Messias.
Crotone possible starting lineup:
Cordaz; Magallan, Golemic, Djidji; Molina, Cigarini, Zanellato, Messias, Reca; Ounas, Simy
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Hakimi, Barella, Brozovic, Sensi, Darmian; Lukaku, Martinez
We say: Crotone 1-3 Inter Milan
Inter have not always sought to dominate proceedings of late, as they have steadily accumulated enough points by any means necessary, but their far-superior midfield unit can take charge against lowly Crotone.
Though the Squali have hit the net with greater regularity than the champions-elect in recent weeks, they have not faced a teak-tough back line like the Nerazzurri's and will find themselves outgunned at the Scida on Saturday - sending them back down to Serie B.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 71.1%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Crotone had a probability of 12.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.77%), while for a Crotone win it was 2-1 (3.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Inter Milan in this match.
