Off to their best-ever start to a Brasileiro Serie A campaign, Cuiaba host Sao Paulo on Saturday at Arena Pantanal in Mato Grosso.
Dourado extended their unbeaten run in the top-flight to three matches, beating Fortaleza 1-0 last weekend, while Sao Paulo have not lost in six successive encounters in all competitions, easing their way past Santos 4-1.
Match preview
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After narrowly avoiding a descent into Serie B in their opening two top-flight seasons, Cuiaba have put themselves in a solid position to remain in the first tier, currently 13th, seven points above the relegation line, and just two behind Atletico Mineiro for a place in the Copa Sudamericana next year.
Bringing back Antonio Oliveira as coach seems to have settled this team down, as the reigning Campeonato Mato-Grossense champions have points in seven of nine league fixtures since he returned, with Cuiaba losing three of their four prior encounters before he returned.
Cuiaba have conceded a goal or fewer in every encounter under Oliveira, though like in their past top-flight campaigns, they continue to struggle in the attacking third, tied for the third-fewest goals scored so far this year (14).
With four away victories in league play thus far, they have already matched their highest-ever total in a single top-flight campaign, though this group have not been as sharp on home soil with just one victory, squandering six points domestically at Arena Pantanal this season when leading in the second half.
The club from Mato Grosso have not lost all season when drawing first blood, while losing six of their seven outings in 2023 after going behind 1-0, having been shut out on four successive occasions when doing so.
Since their inaugural Serie A campaign in 2021, Cuiaba have yet to register a victory against Sao Paulo despite leading in three of four meetings against them and being 10 minutes away from defeating them at home last season (1-1).
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Morale at Tricolor Paulista is understandably high as this team took out their bitter rivals Palmeiras in the Copa do Brasil quarter-finals (3-1 on aggregate), and followed that up with an impressive triumph over another rival, Santos.
Following a pair of mediocre domestic campaigns, finishing 13th in 2021 and ninth the next year, Sao Paulo have been near the top of the table throughout the first 15 matches this season, currently in fourth but just two points behind Flamengo in second.
Dorival Junior has been like a godsend to this group since arriving in April as the man who transformed Flamengo into Copa Libertadores champions a season ago has guided this team to its best start to a top-flight campaign in three years, claiming 25 points in 15 fixtures, one point fewer than they had at this same stage in 2020.
Under Junior, this team have been a handful in the air while looking dangerous on the flanks, scoring their share of goals either in transition or on set pieces.
Although Soberano have been difficult to contain out wide, they have not defended clubs who employ that style all that well, often leaving large gaps in between the midfield and backline, leading to many quality scoring chances against them.
Despite leading in two road contests over this domestic campaign, Sao Paulo are still seeking their first Serie A triumph away from home, claiming a mere four points on the road in 2023.
Team News
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Oliveira brought in a pair of newcomers to the Cuiaba opening lineup last Sunday as Fernando Sobral and Clayson started in place of Denilson and lury Castilho, who were each in the starting 11 when they drew Bahia 1-1.
Deyverson notched his team-leading sixth of the campaign last week, their only targeted effort of that game, with Walter stopping six shots for his second clean sheet this month.
Rodriguinho, who had three goals for them domestically in 2022, is still seeking his first of the new season, while Jonathan Cafu has yet to find the back of the net this year after scoring twice a season ago, though he leads this team regarding assists with two.
Over in Sao Paulo, there could be numerous players forced out of this encounter, with Igor Vinicius nursing a tender groin, Joao Moreira has a sore knee, Talles Costa is dealing with an issue in his meniscus, Lucas Beraldo sprained his ankle, Alan Franco hurt his leg, Gabriel Neves continues to recover from his broken ribs, while Pablo Maia and Nathan have been away for personal reasons.
In one match, Jonathan Calleri moved past Luciano for the team lead in Serie A goals this season (six), notching a double in that victory versus Santos, with David picking up his second of the campaign and Alexandre Pato scoring his first since returning to the club in May.
Calleri and former midfielder Nikao scored in their only victory versus Cuiba last season, while ex-defender Luizao had the equaliser in their previous visit to Arena Pantanal when Felipe Alves stopped five of the six shots that he faced in a 1-1 draw.
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Alexandre, Marllon, Empereur, Rikelme; Sobral, Denilson, Ceppelini; Pitta, Deyverson, Clayson
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Rafinha, Arboleda, D. Costa, Welington; Alisson, Nestor; Pato, Luciano, Araujo; Calleri
We say: Cuiaba 0-0 Sao Paulo
To this point of the 2023 campaign, Sao Paulo have not played with as much aggression away from home, while Cuiaba have looked fairly comfortable at the back since Oliveira took charge, and we anticipate the home side will hang back and be able to surround their opponents this weekend without leaving a lot of clear-cut opportunities.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
