Even though the postseason is out of reach for both Dallas and Austin FC, there is still something to play for on Saturday at Toyota Stadium when the two Texas rivals face off.
A victory for the Verde-and-Black would give them the Copa Tejas, a trophy created in 2019 for the best USL club in Texas, which is being awarded for the first time this year to a club in MLS.
Match preview
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For weeks now, the Toros have been out of the playoff picture, but with a draw or a victory this weekend, they can capture the Copa Tejas and earn bragging rights over Austin and Houston.
It will be their final game at Toyota Stadium this season, a venue which was their saving grace in the playoff race in the early stages of 2021, but lately has been a struggle for them, going without a victory in seven straight fixtures played there.
Football is a 90-minute game where you cannot let up for even a second, and interim manager Marco Ferruzzi, unfortunately, has seen his side do just that, squandering the lead in their previous three encounters and collecting only one point in that span as the technical director for the Toros continues to search for win number one this season.
On Wednesday, they found another way to lose when it looked like three points was in their grasp, conceding twice to Real Salt Lake in the final 10 minutes, extending their winless run to 10 games, their longest such streak since 2017.
As a match wears on, the players seem to lack the motivation to keep fighting hard for every ball, and we saw that nonchalance on full display on Wednesday, gifting Claret and Cobalt the victory but seemingly unconcerned about it.
Their defensive profile has undoubtedly been a problem spot throughout the year, but they have turned the ball over far too often in midfield, and as a result their promising strikers have not received enough good service into those dangerous areas.
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Even though there was an element of good fortune to the 2-1 victory last Saturday for Austin against Houston following a bizarre own goal from Dynamo keeper Marko Maric, Josh Wolff had to be impressed with how his side worked collectively to end their two-match losing streak.
Not only were they smart off the ball and able to keep Orange Crush to the outside, but they also generated their fair share of chances, scoring multiple goals, which they have struggled to do consistently throughout their first campaign.
They come into this contest losers of seven straight on the road, scoring only once in that span and failing to create many quality opportunities to trouble the opposition.
This year for Austin has been what we come to expect from an expansion side playing in their inaugural season, some promising young talent, a lot of growing pains, while competing hard, but simply lacking enough experience and quality to make the difference.
While there are exceptions to the rule, namely Atlanta United and Nashville SC, who enjoyed overnight success when entering the league, it is not as if the Verde-and-Black have failed to live up to any expectations because realistically, no one projected them to make the postseason let alone compete much in 2021.
That being said, when you consider who they signed over the summer, one cannot help but wonder how this team might have fared had Moussa Djitte and Sebastian Driussi been on the roster from the start, as they have given them a lot more depth up high.
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Team News
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Matt Hedges picked up his first goal of the season for Dallas in midweek, getting ahead of RSL goalkeeper David Ochoa to head it over top of him, while Justin Che picked up his third assist of the campaign.
Phelipe Megiolaro and Facundo Quignon are questionable with thigh issues, Johnny Nelson is out after going through back surgery, Beni Redzic is not expected to return this year because of an ankle sprain and Ema Twumasi is eligible to return from his yellow card suspension.
While it is unlikely that he will receive the award, Hungarian international Szabolcs Schon is the Toros nominee for the Landon Donovan Award for league MVP, while Ricardo Pepi and Jesus Ferreira are in the running for Young Player of the Year and Paxton Pomykal is on the list for Comeback Player of the Year.
Veteran midfielder Alexander Ring set up the winning goal for Austin versus Houston, his second of the season, putting him into a tie for second on the team with Nick Lima and Zan Kolmanic.
On the injury front, they are missing the usual personnel who have been on the sidelines for quite some time, including Matt Besler with a concussion, Danny Hoesen with a left hip issue, Aaron Schoenfeld and Ulises Segura have left knee injuries and Ben Sweat is out with an ACL problem.
Diego Fagundez is the team nominee for regular-season MVP, with six goals and three assists this year, while leading goalscorer Cecilio Dominguez and Driussi have been shortlisted for MLS Newcomer of the Year.
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Maurer; Che, Hedges, Twusami, Hollingshead; Acosta, Cerrillo; Obrian, Ferreira, Jara; Pepi
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Kolmanic, Lima, Romana, Jimenez; Ring, Gallagher; Dominguez, Driussi, Fagundez; Djitte
We say: Dallas 2-1 Austin FC
The Copa Tejas is not exactly a highly sought after trophy, but look for Dallas to end their losing run against an Austin side who have lacked creativity and quality in the final third away from home.
The Toros come can afford to make a few more mistakes and not get punished against the Verde-and-Black, who are lacking depth and confidence on the road.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 55.94%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.23%), while for an Austin FC win it was 1-2 (5.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Dallas in this match.
