Two of the bottom three teams in the Western Conference will face each other at Toyota Stadium on Sunday as Dallas host the Vancouver Whitecaps.
Both sides finally got some good fortune last weekend as Dallas beat the Eastern Conference-leading New England Revolution 2-1, and the Caps drew 2-2 with the top-seeded team in Major League Soccer at the moment, the Seattle Sounders.
Match preview
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Weeks of frustration began to pile up for Dallas, who were winless in six consecutive fixtures and seemingly stuck in neutral before things came together last week.
Facing a team in fine form like the Revolution, the Toros were not intimidated and they took it to New England with an early goal in each half in what was probably their best team performance of this campaign.
It certainly was not the prettiest of wins, however, Luchi Gonzalez praised his team for their defending, especially late in the game when the Revs pressed them hard for an equaliser.
No matter how they got it done, Dallas can take a lot of confidence from beating an opponent like that, especially since they had yet to win against any of the top four teams in either conference before last weekend.
This week, the focus will be on learning and growing while not getting overconfident after finally earning three points for only the second time this season.
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The Vancouver Whitecaps have been desperately seeking some kind of break, and last week they finally got one with a brilliant second-half performance to draw the Seattle Sounders.
Marc Dos Santos and his team can take a lot of positives from that game, which ended their five-match losing run, while also putting them in the lead for the Cascadia Cup, a trophy that they compete for each year against their pacific coast rivals, the Sounders and the Portland Timbers.
Even with their positive result, the Caps still have plenty of work to do if they are to turn their season around and climb out of the Western Conference basement, currently sitting on eight points from their first 10 matches.
Vancouver have struggled in the middle of the field, without an established playmaker or number 10, they lack imagination and creativity while also being far too passive when they get the ball.
Last week, they played with more of a reckless abandonment, but they never really started to play that way until conceding the opening goal.
Speaking of the opening goal, that is an area Dos Santos will need to address as far too often his side have had to change up their game plan because they fell behind, plus the Caps have yet to score a first-half goal this season.
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Team News
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The Toros remain without Thomas Roberts because of a leg injury, goalkeeper Kyle Zobeck has a hamstring injury and left-winger Beni Redzic is recovering from ankle surgery.
Ricardo Pepi scored a brace in the victory over the Revs, the first Dallas player to do so since former striker Fafa Picault notched a pair of goals on Halloween of last year in a 3-0 win over the Houston Dynamo.
The 18-year-old Pepi, from El Paso, became the youngest player in club history to score twice for Dallas in an MLS match as he and Gonzalez were selected to the MLS Team of the Week.
The Whitecaps have not had any luck sorting out the visa situation for their star fullback Ali Adnan as the Iraqi will remain off the pitch until that issue is figured out, while fellow defender Bruno Gaspar is likely out again with an unknown injury.
Last Saturday was easily the best match for the Whitecaps front three, with Cristian Dajome scoring for the first time since May 8, Lucas Cavallini notched his first goal since their season opener and Deiber Caicedo was a constant threat down the wing, missing a glorious one on one opportunity at the end of that first half.
Erik Godoy was solid in central defence for the Caps against the Sounders, winning all of his ground duels, logging five clearances with a passing at rate of 98%, while fullback Cristian Gutierrez was the most offensively engaged Vancouver defender with two key passes, five blocks, two tackles and three interceptions.
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Maurer; Che, Bressan, Hollingshead, Nelson; Obrian, Ricaurte, Acosta, Tessmann; Jara, Pepi
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Gutierrez, Rose, Godoy, Bikel; Teibert, Owusu, Raposo; Caicedo, Cavallini, Dajome
We say: Dallas 2-1 Vancouver Whitecaps
Dallas are unbeaten at Toyota Stadium in 15 consecutive fixtures, and the Whitecaps have never taken three points from the Toros on their home turf.
Both teams caused massive upsets last week, but Dallas seem to be better equipped to handle a tense game than the Caps, who have unravelled in the late stages of matches this season.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 76.58%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 9.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9%) and 2-1 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.25%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 1-2 (2.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
