This weekend, DC United come into their match on their worst losing run in two years as they host the New England Revolution on Saturday at Audi Field.
Another defeat would be the fifth straight for DC in this Major League Soccer campaign, their longest such losing streak since 2020, while the Revs are unbeaten in eight consecutive encounters versus the Black and Red.
Match preview
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After a week off to focus and get their season back on track, we saw a strong start from DC against Austin FC, though in the end, it was another late collapse that left them empty-handed.
That 3-2 defeat was the final nail in the coffin of manager Hernan Losada, who was sacked on Wednesday, with Chris Ashton taking over on an interim basis.
Five of the eight goals which they have conceded in this MLS campaign have come in the second half, allowing the winner beyond the 90th minute in back-to-back contests.
Maintaining early momentum has been an issue for them in recent weeks, as they have had a hard time dealing with crosses into their penalty box and buckled under the intense Austin pressure last Saturday, conceding three goals in the final 10 minutes despite going into half time up 2-0.
DC have been involved in their share of intense matches this year, and against the Verde and Black, they failed to keep their composure, committing 18 fouls to go along with four cautions and a sending off.
Under Losada, this team loved to press and counter, and they certainly have the quality to do that effectively, though that approach left them short at the back, so we will have to wait and see if Ashton employs similar tactics moving forward.
If they want to climb out of last place in the Eastern Conference and contend for a playoff berth, the Black and Red will want to pace themselves and make more of their possession count, as we have seen them expend so much energy early in their matches that they look completely exhausted in the latter stages.
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The Revolution managed to end a lengthy losing run in their previous encounter, edging Charlotte FC 2-1 at Foxborough.
When you have the kind of regular season that the 2021 Supporters' Shield winners had last year, accumulating an MLS record of 73 points, you know that other teams will take notice and do everything to slow you down.
Before this season, we had not seen this franchise suffer four straight defeats since the 2017 campaign, as The Revs have conceded as many goals after seven games this year (13) as they did in their opening 11 fixtures of 2021.
Their poor form at the start of this season shows just how valuable the likes of Matt Turner and Tajon Buchanan were to their success a year ago, as this group have been missing those timely saves and that blazing speed out wide, which helped them win so many matches.
Manager Bruce Arena has talked about the importance of putting together a collective effort over 90 minutes, and we saw them perform much better in that department last weekend.
While they narrowly hung on against the Crown, it was probably their best term performance of the season so far.
New England have been poor defensively away from home, conceding eight goals on the road this season while allowing multiple strikes in five consecutive matches dating back to the 2021 regular season.
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Team News
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Ola Kamara, who led DC United in goals last season with 19, scored his third and fourth of this campaign a week ago, but he will not be available for this contest after receiving a pair of yellow cards in the opening 45 minutes against Austin.
Suspensions do not count in other competitions, so Kamara was able to feature in the third round of their U.S. Open Cup tie on Tuesday, notching a brace in a 3-0 win over Flower City Union.
Julian Gressel and Andy Najar picked up assists in the defeat to the Verde and Black, and Steve Birnbaum made his 200th career regular-season appearance in MLS.
Donovan Pines started for the first time in 2022, and Taxiarchis Fountas made his Black and Red debut, replacing Nigel Robertha in the second half.
Last Wednesday, the club announced the signing of midfielder Jackson Hopkins through until 2025, as he becomes the 18th home-grown player in club history.
Adrien Perez continues to nurse a foot problem, Sofiane Djeffal is questionable due to a shoulder injury, while Moses Nyeman and Chris Odoi-Atsem are questionable as well with thigh issues.
New England have a slew of players that are questionable for this encounter, including Henry Kessler with a muscle issue, while Gustavo Bou, Jon Bell, Maciel and Ryan Spaulding all have upper leg injuries.
With Turner set to join Premier League side Arsenal later this year, the club might try to bring their new signing Djordje Petrovic into the fold soon, after the 22-year-old Serbian signed a three-year deal with the Revs earlier this month.
Brad Knighton made a season-high five saves in their victory over Charlotte, and Carles Gil created five chances along with seven successful crosses in his 75th appearance for the team.
Matt Polster eclipsed 10,000 minutes played in his MLS career, Adam Buksa scored his first goal of the season and Justin Rennicks featured in the starting 11 for a third consecutive game.
DC United possible starting lineup:
Hamid; Gressel, Pines, Birnbaum, Hines-Ike; Canouse, Skundrich, Durkin, Hopkins, Flores; Robertha
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Knighton; Bye, Kessler, Farrell, Jones; McNamara, Polster, Boateng; Gil; Buksa, Altidore
We say: DC United 1-2 New England Revolution
Neither side have been consistently sharp this season, but the Revs have probably the best chance creator in the league in Carles Gil, who will be a handful for the Black and Red.
DC look tentative defensively, which New England should be able to exploit, and without Kamara, it is hard to know who will pose a threat up front for their new coach.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 40.32%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 35.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.17%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 1-2 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that DC United would win this match.
