Euro 2020 semi-finalists Denmark welcome Scotland to Parken Stadium on Wednesday evening for the fourth game of their World Cup Qualifying campaign in Group F.
The Danes are the highest scorers in European qualification so far, with 14 strikes in just three games, while the Scots travel to Copenhagen unbeaten in their last four away internationals.
Match preview
© Reuters
It is fair to say that Denmark's experience at Euro 2020 was eventful. From the collapse and merciful recovery of Christian Eriksen in their first game against Finland, to their semi-final exit in extra time against England at Wembley, the Danes were sent on an emotional rollercoaster but one that ended in good spirits.
Kasper Hjulmand is now hoping that his side can take their positive momentum into this month's World Cup qualifiers and continue where they left off.
Denmark have a perfect record from their opening three group matches, scoring 14 times and not conceding a single goal.
An 8-0 demolition of Moldova was sandwiched between comfortable away victories against Israel and Austria, sending them to the top of Group F, four points clear of their nearest challengers and Wednesday's opponents Scotland.
Denmark's last competitive meeting with the Scots was at the 1986 World Cup, with the Danes winning 1-0 during the group stage. They did, however, lose both of their last two international friendlies against them in 2011 and 2016.
The Red and Whites are set to face their toughest test yet in Group F, though it is a game in which they will be confident of securing all three points.
© Reuters
Scotland's time at Euro 2020 – their first major tournament in 23 years – was a little shorter than that of the Danes, as Steve Clarke's men were eliminated in the group stage, claiming just one point from their three matches.
The Tartan Army have had more joy in World Cup qualifying, claiming five points from their opening three games, scoring seven goals in the process.
Goals from John McGinn and Ryan Fraser rescued draws against Austria and Israel respectively, before the Scots cruised to a 4-0 victory at home against the Faroe Islands in March.
Ahead of September's international break, Clarke has claimed to have experienced the most "disruptive" and "troublesome" period of his Scotland tenure due to several injuries and positive tests for coronavirus.
Clarke's squad may be a little lighter in some areas but he still has plenty of good options at his disposal and is set to name a competitive side who will look to cause Denmark problems.
The last time Scotland beat Denmark in a competitive fixture was back in 1975 when a Kenny Dalglish-inspire side claimed a 3-1 win at Hampden Park during Euro 1976 qualification.
Another victory on Wednesday would see the Tartan Army close the gap on the group leaders to just one point at the halfway stage.
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- D
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Bournemouth midfielder Philip Billing was hoping to make his first international appearance for Denmark since October 2020, after missing out on a place in the squad at Euro 2020, however the 25-year-old has had to pull out of the first-team set-up due to illness.
Forward Martin Braithwaite is unlikely to feature as he picked up a knee injury during Barcelona's last match against Getafe, so Yussuf Poulsen could be handed a start up front with Kasper Dolberg and Liverpool target Mikkel Damsgaard.
Captain Simon Kjaer – who, along with the Danish team's medical staff, has been honoured with the 2021 UEFA President's Award for their efforts in saving Eriksen's life – is set to start at the heart of the defence alongside Andreas Christensen and Joachim Andersen.
As for Scotland, Clarke will have to do without several first-team members for Wednesday's fixture, including Celtic duo James Forrest and Greg Taylor who have pulled out of the squad due to injury, joining striker Kevin Nisbet as well as midfielders Scott McTominay and Stuart Armstrong on the treatment table.
Aston Villa's John McGinn and Nathan Patterson of Rangers are not available to face Denmark as they are in isolation. McGinn has tested positive for coronavirus, while Patterson was deemed to have been in close contact with someone at Rangers who had contracted the virus.
In addition, full-back Stephen O'Donnell, who has missed Motherwell's last three matches with COVID-19, has been told he cannot travel to Denmark due to the country's protocols. With no natural right-back in Clarke's squad, Fraser may be handed a start in a more defensive role.
Clarke will have to decide whether to start 38-year-old goalkeeper Craig Gordon or hand an international debut to either Zander Clark or Liam Kelly, who have been called up for the first time.
Denmark possible starting lineup:
Schmeichel; Christensen, Kjaer, Anderson; Stryger Larsen, Delaney, Hojbjerg, Maehle; Damsgaard, Dolberg, Poulsen
Scotland possible starting lineup:
Gordon; McKenna, Hanley, Tierney; Fraser, McGregor, Gilmour, Turnbull, Robertson; Dykes, Adams
We say: Denmark 2-1 Scotland
Scotland will fancy their chances of securing all three points against Denmark, though the hosts will be favourites to come out on top in midweek.
A closely-fought contest is set to be played out in Copenhagen, but we are predicting the Danes to secure a narrow victory to maintain their perfect record in qualifying.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Denmark win with a probability of 50.27%. A win for Scotland had a probability of 26.19% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Denmark win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Scotland win was 1-2 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Denmark would win this match.
