Paraguayan outfit Cerro Porteno travel to the Estadio Olimpico de la UCV on Thursday to face Deportivo La Guaira in gameweek four of the Copa Libertadores.
There is currently only one point to split the two sides in Group H, with the hosts having drawn all three games and the visitors registering one win, loss and draw in this season's campaign.
Match preview
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Venezuelan side Deportivo La Guaira have struggled in front of goal recently, having recorded four 0-0 draws in their last seven games in all competitions, including two goalless draws in the Copa Libertadores.
In gameweek three of this tournament Daniel Farias's side played out a 0-0 draw with winless side America de Cali, who dominated the possession and chances in front of goal that day.
However, despite many difficulties in front of goal for La Guaira, last time out they scored four against Carabobo, with Jose Reyes grabbing himself a nine-minute hat-trick and Darwin Gonzalez adding a fourth in a 4-2 victory at home.
That result places Farias's team in second in the Venezuelan Primera Division, where they remain unbeaten in the first four rounds of fixtures.
Cerro Porteno are also doing well in their respective domestic division, currently sitting third in the Paraguayan Division Profesional with three games to play.
A vital clash in the league was the last game Porteno played, when they remained above fourth-placed Nacional after a 2-2 draw was the end result between those two sides.
Mauro Boselli and Robert Morales ensured Porteno had a 2-0 lead at half time but Wilson Ayala equalised for the visitors in stoppage time at the end of the 90 minutes which meant the points were shared at the Estadio General Pablo Rojas.
Last time out in the Copa Libertadores, Francisco Arce's side lost ground on the group leaders Atletico MG, who put four past Jean in the Porteno goal, the first time the Paraguayan side have conceded that many goals in one game since December 2020.
La Guaira travelled to Porteno in gameweek two of the Copa Libertadores and the away side that day did not register a single shot in the game, meaning that the hosts were left disappointed with just one point after creating the most chances.
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Team News
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With three clean sheets in as many games in this season's Copa Libertadores, the back three of Henry Pernia, Francisco Mantia and Luis Martinez along with La Guaira goalkeeper Carlos Olses deserve praise for their defensive strength so far this campaign.
Reyes has not featured in the Copa Libertadores for Farias's side since the opening gameweek but a hat-trick in their last game is sure to mean that the 28-year-old is pushing for a start on Thursday.
Cerro Porteno have not scored since the opening game in this tournament when Morales and Angel Lucena secured a 2-0 win for the Paraguayan side, but Morales has not started a game in the Copa Libertadores since then.
After Porteno's damaging 4-0 defeat against Atletico MG, Arce may decide to make alterations to his side to tighten up defensively and offer more in attack.
Deportivo La Guaira possible starting lineup:
Olses; Pernia, Mantia, Martinez; Cumana, Cermeno, Arles Flores, Pol, Flores; Gonzalez, Reyes
Cerro Porteno possible starting lineup:
Jean; Arzamendia, Duarte, Patino, Espinola; Aquino, Villasanti, Lucena, Gimenez; Carrizo, Morales
We say: Deportivo La Guaira 1-1 Cerro Porteno
La Guaira are yet to score in this season's Copa Libertadores but after Cerro Porteno conceded four in gameweek three, the visitors showed their defensive frailties which could allow their counterparts to get on the scoresheet on Thursday.
Porteno will need to win this game to stay above their hosts however it will take a lot of character from the squad to bounce back from the 4-0 defeat and the last-minute equaliser they conceded against Nacional last time out.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo La Guaira win with a probability of 41.09%. A win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 30.88% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo La Guaira win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Cerro Porteno win was 0-1 (10.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
