Derby County play host to rivals Barnsley on Saturday afternoon looking for the victory which will move the Rams back above their next opponents.
While the home side sit in 23rd position in the Championship standings, Barnsley have recently move into 22nd, a result of three wins being recorded from their last four fixtures.
Match preview
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Not so long ago, Derby seemed well on their way to the greatest of escapes having closed the gap on 21st-placed Reading, but the mood has now changed at Pride Park.
At a time when the Rams have suffered three successive defeats, Reading and Saturday's opponents have both found some form, only leaving Derby above bottom place on goal difference.
With 11 matches remaining, the gap to safety stands at eight points, not an irretrievable situation by any means but one which requires an immediate upturn in fortunes.
There remains an air of uncertainty regarding matters off the pitch, but Wayne Rooney can only afford to focus on trying to guide his team to a minimum of six wins from 11 games.
Derby's only goal in three games has been from a Millwall player putting through his own net, with Luke Plange failing to score in seven appearances since he completed a transfer to Crystal Palace at the end of the January window.
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After a 13-match winless streak, Barnsley had been written off with regards to staying in the Championship, and it felt realistic that Poya Asbaghi could depart the club without register a league win.
However, the Tykes have remarkably flipped the form book on its head, with victories being recorded over Queens Park Rangers, Hull City and Middlesbrough.
Still possessing a game in hand, Barnsley now only sit six points adrift of Reading, with the Royals due to travel to Oakwell on April 2.
While Asbaghi will insist on taking one game at a time, there is now real hope that the Yorkshire outfit can replace Derby in pulling off one of the greatest escapes that the EFL has ever seen.
January arrival Amine Bassi chipped in with two goals and an assist during the five-goal thriller versus Middlesbrough, setting the standard ahead of the run-in.
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Team News
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Derby will be able to call upon key playmaker Tom Lawrence, who will return to the starting lineup after a three-match suspension.
Ravel Morrison could be the player to drop out, but Krystian Bielik has been declared fit after going off at half time in midweek.
Colin Kazim-Richards may return to the team in place of Plange, while Richard Stearman could also be considered for a recall.
Asbaghi may see no reason to make any changes to his Barnsley XI unless any injury issues have been picked up in training.
Callum Brittain and Liam Kitching are alternatives if Asbaghi wants to tinker with his team.
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Byrne, Davies, Stearman, Buchanan; Bielik, Bird; Ebosele, Knight, Lawrence; Plange
Barnsley possible starting lineup:
Collins; Williams, Helik, Andersen, Vita; Wolfe, Gomes; Styles, Bassi, Quina; Morris
We say: Derby County 1-2 Barnsley
With the stakes high for both teams, we expect plenty of nerves to be on show at Pride Park. However, while we would have backed Derby at any other stage of the season, we are now predicting a Barnsley win, one which will take them closer to a once unthinkable survival in this division.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.45%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 0-1 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
