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[monks data]
Derby logo
Championship | Gameweek 36
Mar 13, 2021 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Millwall logo

Derby
0 - 1
Millwall


Shinnie (84')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Hutchinson (45')
Evans (58')

Preview: Derby County vs. Millwall - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Derby County and Millwall, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Derby County host Millwall in the Championship on Saturday afternoon and are looking to complete a league double over the Lions for the first time since the 1968-69 season.

Meanwhile, Gary Rowett's side head to Pride Park having won their last two visits there by a 1-0 scoreline.


Match preview

Derby County's manager Wayne Rooney before the match on March 6, 2021© Reuters

After a run of four matches without a win, including Wednesday night's goalless draw away at Barnsley, Wayne Rooney and his Derby squad will be looking over their shoulder at the possibility of a relegation scrap.

The Rams are currently seven points clear of the bottom three, although 22nd-placed Rotherham United have three games in hand.

Rooney's side have a challenging run ahead for the rest of this campaign, with Sheffield Wednesday on the final day of the season their only opponent who sit below 15th position.

On home soil, Derby have improved defensively in recent weeks, shipping just four goals in their last nine games at Pride Park, prior to conceding 13 times in their first eight home league matches in 2020-21.

Victory on Saturday would be their first of the month and could move them up one place above rivals Nottingham Forest into 17th position.

Millwall manager Gary Rowett pictured in February 2021© Reuters

Millwall suffered their fourth home league defeat of the season as they were beaten 2-0 by Blackburn Rovers last weekend.

The Lions failed to score at the Den in a Championship game for the seventh time this season as strikes from Bradley Dack and Sam Gallagher secured all three points for the visitors.

The result has seen Rowett's side slip down to 11th in the table, 12 points behind the playoffs and 14 points clear of the relegation zone.

Millwall head to Pride Park with the seventh-best away record in the division, accumulating a total of 24 points from their 17 games on the road.

The Lions lost last time out against Derby as Jason Knight's effort was enough to seal a slender 1-0 victory for the Rams in early December. Rowett has also lost his last two meetings with his former club and will be hoping to avoid another defeat on Saturday.

Derby County Championship form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D

Millwall Championship form:
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L


Team News

Derby County's Colin Kazim-Richards celebrates scoring their first goal against Nottingham Forest in the Championship on February 26, 2021© Reuters

After failing to score in their last three matches, Derby manager Rooney may decide to name Martyn Waghorn in his starting lineup alongside top goalscorer Colin Kazim-Richards, which could see Lee Gregory drop to the bench against his former club.

Winger Kamil Jozwiak, who has found the net just once in 31 league appearances this season, could make way for new recruit Patrick Roberts, on loan from Manchester City, who was an unused substitute against Barnsley.

Millwall boss Rowett is unlikely to make too many changes from his starting lineup, despite losing against Blackburn last weekend.

Central midfielder Ben Thompson, who was an unused substitute in the last game, could be recalled to the first XI at the expense of Billy Mitchell.

Jon Dadi Bodvarsson, Jed Wallace and Mason Bennett are set to form their front three once again, although target man Matt Smith will also be pushing for a starting spot.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Byrne, Wisdom, Clarke, Buchanan; Bird, Shinnie, Knight; Waghorn, Roberts; Kazim-Richards

Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Evans, Hutchinson, Cooper; Romeo, Woods, Thompson, Malone; Wallace, Bodvarsson, Bennett


SM words green background

We say: Derby County 0-0 Millwall

Both Derby and Millwall will be keen to address their current form and get back to winning ways on Saturday.

The hosts are yet to score in March and will be looking to find their shooting boots against a Lions outfit that have conceded in each of their last four matches; with little to separate the two teams, we can see a draw being played out at Pride Park.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 38.11%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 30%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.56%) and 1-2 (7.42%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (12.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Millwall in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Derby vs Millwall

Derby County
50.0%
Draw
40.9%
Millwall
9.1%
22
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