Dynamo Kiev and Benfica kick off their 2021-22 Champions League campaigns with Tuesday's Group E clash at the NSC Olimpiyskiy.
The hosts stormed to the Ukrainian Premier League title last term to secure their passage into the group stage, whereas Benfica had to do it the hard way after a third-placed finish in the 2020-21 Primeira Liga season.
Match preview
© Reuters
After a spate of second-placed finishes in the Ukrainian Premier League from 2016 to 2020, Dynamo Kiev ended their agonising four-year wait for another domestic title last term, losing just one of their 26 games to finish 11 points clear of dethroned perennial winners Shakhtar Donetsk.
Mircea Lucescu's side have already proven that the crown is theirs to lose once again, with Dynamo Kiev taking 19 points from their first seven fixtures of the 2021-22 season to sit atop the pile, and they have won their last three league games without shipping a single goal.
After beating Desna and Kolos Kovalivka 4-0 and 7-0 respectively before the international break, goals from Viktor Tsygankov and Denys Garmash propelled Kiev to a 2-0 success over Metalist 1925 at the weekend - the ideal warm-up to a daunting Champions League battle with Benfica.
The Ukrainian champions are gearing up for their second successive appearance in the Champions League group stages, although they could only finish third in a group with Juventus and Barcelona last season before being knocked out in the last-16 of the Europa League to eventual winners Villarreal.
Dynamo's only victory in last season's group stage came on the final matchday - a 1-0 home success over Ferencvaros - but Juventus and Barcelona are the only teams to have beaten this week's hosts in Kiev over their last 10 Champions League home games.
© Reuters
Similarly, Benfica have also strung together a red-hot unbeaten streak to kick off the 2021-22 season in perfect fashion, with a 4-0 aggregate win over Spartak Moscow setting up a playoff tie with PSV Eindhoven for the right to ply their trade in the group stages.
Despite being held to a 0-0 draw in the Netherlands, Benfica's 2-1 first-leg win saw them return to the promised land after a one-year absence, and their successes on the continental stage have translated into near-perfect league form as they seek a 38th top-flight title.
With 15 points taken from a possible 15 and 13 goals scored along the way, Benfica have taken advantage of Sporting Lisbon's early setbacks and ran out convincing 5-0 winners against Santa Clara at the weekend, as Darwin Nunez bagged a brace while Rodrigo Pinho, Roman Yaremchuk and Rafa Silva also got in on the act.
Jorge Jesus's side have failed to make it out of the group during their last three Champions League stints, though, while only one of their last 11 away games in the proper tournament has seen them come up trumps, but they have only conceded one goal in five away games across all competitions since the start of August.
Benfica marched to 2-0 and 1-0 triumphs over Dynamo Kiev during the 2016-17 Champions League group stage, and the Ukrainian side have only won one of their four meetings with this week's visitors - a 1-0 success in the 1991-92 European Cup.
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Dynamo Kiev are extremely light on the attacking front heading into Tuesday's game, with four strikers in Eric Ramirez, Artem Besedin, Vladyslav Kulach and Ibrahim Kargbo all missing due to various ailments.
Vladyslav Supryaga or CSKA Moscow loanee Ilya Shkurin should therefore lead the line this week, while midfielder Mykola Shaparenko was suspended for the win over Metalist but is available here.
Nineteen-year-old Ilya Zabarnyi continues to make a name for himself in defence while Denys Popov nurses a cruciate ligament rupture, and Bogdan Lednev's spot in the hole is at risk after Garmash was introduced at half time before netting at the weekend.
Benfica will be without defender Lucas Verissimo due to suspension this week, but Nicolas Otamendi will make a timely return from international duty after he was forced to miss the 5-0 win over Santa Clara.
Adel Taarabt is serving a lengthy suspension in the Primeira Liga but is available for European contests, while Andre Almeida is the visitors' only injury concern after he was ruled out of Saturday's game.
New arrival Yaremchuk rose through the youth ranks at Dynamo Kiev but left without a single goal in 11 appearances back in 2017, and both he and Pizzi - who boasts 12 goals in his last 14 European games - should earn recalls to the first XI here.
Dynamo Kiev possible starting lineup:
Bushchan; Kedziora, Zabarnyi, Syrota, Mykolenko; De Pena, Sydorchuk, Shaparenko, Tsygankov; Garmash; Shkurin
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Otamendi, Morato, Vertonghen; Pizzi, Weigl, Mario, Grimaldo; Silva, Yaremchuk, Nunez
We say: Dynamo Kiev 0-1 Benfica
Dynamo Kiev's lack of attacking options have not impacted their ability to storm to the top of the rankings domestically, but their injury problems are sure to be well and truly felt against a team of Benfica's calibre.
The Portuguese leaders ship very few goals away from home and will pay Dynamo the respect that they deserve, but we can only see Jesus's side getting off on the right foot with all three points this week.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 52.67%. A win for Dynamo Kiev had a probability of 24.45% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.01%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Dynamo Kiev win was 2-1 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
