Looking to maintain their 100% record in pre-season, National League side Eastleigh will welcome Premier League newcomers Southampton to Silverlake Stadium on Friday night.
The Spitfires are aiming to implement a new style of play as they seek to push on towards the Football League, whilst the Saints' primary objective this season is to survive in the top flight.
Match preview
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The 2023-24 campaign marked a decade of National League football for Eastleigh following their promotion to the fifth tier from National League South in 2014, and the Spitfires celebrated with a relatively stress-free campaign in front of their Silverlake Stadium faithful.
The Hampshire-based club finished 13th in a 24-team division after collecting a respectable tally of 59 points from 46 league fixtures, meaning that they ended up 12 points behind the playoff positions and seven points ahead of 21st-placed Boreham Wood, who suffered relegation alongside Kidderminster Harriers, Dorking Wanderers and Oxford City.
Impressing as interim manager of Eastleigh for the final 13 matches of last season between February and late April, Southampton legend Kelvin Davis has been handed a three-year deal at Silverlake Stadium, with the former Saints goalkeeper aiming to imprint his footballing philosophy on the Spitfires.
Unlike Friday's Premier League visitors, Eastleigh have already commenced their schedule of pre-season matches, securing a confidence-boosting 4-2 win over Wimborne Town on Saturday afternoon.
Spitfires boss Davis is hoping that this weekend's fixture will help the working relationship between the two clubs flourish for years to come, with the National League side signing Southampton youngsters Jake Vokins and Will Merry on loan during the 2023-24 season.
After 11 consecutive years as a top-flight outfit, Southampton's Premier League stint came to a sobering end at the conclusion of the 2022-23 season, however the South Coast club have bounced back brilliantly over the past 12 months to ensure their Championship stay was only a temporary one.
Luring Russell Martin from Swansea City, the Saints produced a brand of football that was all about possession and controlling the pace of the game, and although they had to watch Leicester City and Ipswich Town enjoy automatic promotion, Southampton were rewarded for their hard work with a playoff-final success over Leeds United at Wembley.
Scoring the only goal of the promotion-clinching match in late May, former Newcastle United and Coventry City marksman Adam Armstrong bagged his 24th Championship goal of the campaign, and the lively attacker will be desperate to prove that he can thrive in the Premier League.
Martin's side have welcomed a mix of top-flight experience and exciting youth to their ranks ahead of their Premier League return, with Adam Lallana and Charlie Taylor joining from Brighton & Hove Albion and Burnley respectively, prior to the signings of promising centre-backs Ronnie Edwards and Nathan Wood.
Friday night's trip to Silverlake Stadium will be Southampton's first assignment of a packed summer schedule, with matches against Bordeaux, Montpellier and Lazio the pick of the bunch ahead of a top-flight opener at St James' Park versus Newcastle United on August 17.
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Team News
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A top performer for Eastleigh last season, 11-goal striker Scott Quigley will be keen to test himself against Premier League opposition on Friday night.
The Spitfires fielded two trailists in their starting XI at Wimborne Town on Saturday as they look to sound out potential recruits ahead of the new term.
Following his £18m move from West Ham United on Tuesday, Flynn Downes could be in line for his first match as a permanent Saints midfielder.
Impressing for AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie and on the continental stage in recent years, Yukinari Sugawara has arrived on the South Coast and could make his debut against Eastleigh.
The Japanese right-back could be first choice at St Mary's Stadium this season, with the future of Kyle Walker-Peters currently unclear.
Eastleigh possible starting lineup:
McDonnell; Boldewijn, Fernandez, Francillette, Underhill; Taylor, Shade, Edmundson, Waruih; Quigley, McCallum
Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Sugawara, Harwood-Bellis, Edwards, Stephens; Smallbone, Charles, Aribo; Adams, Fraser, Armstrong
We say: Eastleigh 1-3 Southampton
Having already started their pre-season schedule last week, Eastleigh could be the sharper of the sides and cause their Premier League opponents some issues.
That being said, the Saints have enough quality within their ranks to rack up a couple of goals at Silverlake Stadium, where the visitors should kick-start their summer itinerary with a win.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 73.12%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Eastleigh had a probability of 10.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.31%) and 0-3 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.35%), while for a Eastleigh win it was 2-1 (3.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-7 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
