It is crunch time for relegation-threatened Elche, who will host Athletic Bilbao on the last day of the La Liga season knowing that their top-flight status very much hangs in the balance.
The mission for Fran Escriba's Elche is simple: pick up all three points against their Basque visitors and pray results are favourable elsewhere.
Match preview
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Elche looked down and out not so long ago, but a shock 3-1 win away to Cadiz has put Escriba's men very much back in contention for La Liga survival, with the team now neck-and-neck with 17th-placed Huesca.
With four sides competing for survival on the last day of the season, to say things are looking tense would be an understatement.
Elche have lost their last two La Liga encounters against Athletic and have not suffered three consecutive defeats against them since September 1964.
Fortunately for Elche, Escriba has won two of his last three clashes against Athletic.
It will be a tall order for Elche to get the better of Athletic, but there is no doubt that Escriba's embattled side will give it a shot.
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After a mesmerising run of form following the appointment of Marcelino earlier this season, Athletic's season appears to have plateaued in recent weeks.
Marcelino's men have lost their last two league outings, with Huesca and Real Madrid both beating them 1-0.
Currently ninth in the standings, Athletic have picked up eight points from their last six league games.
If Athletic emerge victorious this weekend, they will achieve a La Liga double against Elche for just the fourth time, and the first since 1970.
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Team News
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Escriba will be without defender Johan Mojica, who is out with a muscular injury.
Guti is expected to retain his spot in the heart of the midfield after serving his suspension.
The biggest loss for Marcelino will be skipper Iker Muniain, who is unlikely to feature due to a hamstring injury.
Other absentees for Athletic include Ander Capa and Yuri Berchiche, who are both out injured.
Elche possible starting lineup:
Gazzaniga; Barragan, Gonzalo, Gonzalez; Josan Fernandez, Guti, Mfulu, Fidel, Piatti; Pere Milla, Boye
Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Simon; De Marcos, Alvarez, Martinez, Balenziaga; Alex Berenguer, D Garcia, Vencedor, Morcillo; Williams, Sancet
We say: Elche 1-2 Athletic Bilbao
While three points for Elche would certainly be a fairytale end to the campaign for the club, we think Athletic will prove to be too much for Escriba's men. Elche made a splash when they beat Cadiz last time out, and we are not sure they will be able to do the same against Athletic.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 47.02%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Elche had a probability of 26.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.09%) and 1-2 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.62%), while for a Elche win it was 1-0 (8.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
