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[monks data]
England national football team
European Championship | Round of 16
Jun 29, 2021 at 5pm UK
Aviva Stadium
Germany national football team

England
2 - 0
Germany

Sterling (75'), Kane (86')
Rice (8'), Phillips (45'), Maguire (77')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Ginter (25'), Gosens (72')

Preview: England vs. Germany - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's European Championship clash between England and Germany, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

A quarter of a century on from their infamous encounter at Euro 96, old foes England and Germany renew hostilities at Wembley Stadium in the last-16 stage of Euro 2020 on Tuesday evening.

The Three Lions progressed in first place from Group D to set up a tie with Germany, who managed to claim second spot in the tournament's group of death.


Match preview

England manager Gareth Southgate celebrates after the match on June 13, 2021© Reuters

Desperate to banish the talk and memories of England's 1996 heartbreak, Gareth Southgate - who has since swapped spot kicks for the sidelines - will oversee at least 90 minutes of football which could either make or break the Three Lions' summer.

The long-awaited return of supporters to Wembley Stadium seemed to work wonders for England's rearguard, as Italy were the only other team to advance to the last-16 without shipping a goal, but for their plethora of talent up top, putting the ball in the back of the net has not exactly been England's forte.

Raheem Sterling's well-taken winner against Croatia preceded a crucial header versus the Czech Republic - two victories which came either side of a drab goalless stalemate with their Scottish counterparts - but seven points taken from a possible nine was enough to send England through as group winners.

It has now been over 450 minutes of football since Southgate's side last conceded a goal and they head into their clash with Germany on a nine-game unbeaten run across all competitions, but all four of their most recent victories have come courtesy of a 1-0 scoreline - certainly cause for concern before inevitable fixtures with the continent's finest.

Whether Southgate opts to keep faith in the 4-2-3-1 or take a punt on his previously favoured three-man defence, one thing is for certain - England simply have to dust off their best shooting boots to be in with a chance of a quarter-final versus either Sweden or Ukraine.

Should England manage to produce the goods in normal time, it would mark the first time ever that the Three Lions have won a European Championship knockout game over the course of 90 minutes, but Joachim Low and his last dance will be out to make England's 300th Wembley outing a truly miserable one.

Germany manager Joachim Low pictured on June 2, 2021© Reuters

It was truly anyone's game in the group of death comprising 2014 World Cup winners Germany, reigning European champions Portugal and reigning world champions France, but all three powerhouses ultimately managed to progress as a beleaguered Hungary bowed out with their heads held high.

Low's men were arguably fortunate to only lose 1-0 to France in their opening game, and they had to rely on Leon Goretzka to bail them out of trouble in a 2-2 draw with Hungary, but sandwiched in between those two underwhelming results was a stellar 4-2 thrashing of Portugal, which saw them pip the Euro 2016 winners to second spot in Group F.

Die Mannschaft may not be the force they once were in Rio de Janeiro seven years ago, but their penchant for major tournaments is well-documented, as they have managed to advance to the semi-final stage of the Euros three times in succession since the outgoing Low took the reins in 2006.

However, a continental winners' medal is still missing from Low's CV, as the Germany manager witnessed his side fall at the final hurdle in 2008 before back-to-back semi-final finishes in 2012 and 2016, so Germany would do well to replicate the feats of the 1996 champions in the English capital this time around.

Southgate will not need reminding that his missed penalty proved fatal 25 years ago, and the last time that Germany and England locked horns in a competitive fixture was back in the 2010 World Cup - a resounding 4-1 success for the Germans as Frank Lampard still relives his ghost goal - but the two sides most recently drew 0-0 in a 2017 friendly.

England European Championship form:
  • W
  • D
  • W

England form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W

Germany European Championship form:
  • L
  • W
  • D

Germany form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D



Team News

Mason Mount in action for Chelsea in March 2021© Reuters

England duo Mason Mount and Ben Chilwell were controversially forced to self-isolate after coming into close contact with the COVID-positive Billy Gilmour - despite both players returning negative tests - and Southgate is unlikely to include either man from the off given that they will only come out of quarantine on the day of the game.

Southgate has nothing to worry about on the injury front, though, as Harry Maguire made his comeback against the Czech Republic and should keep his place in the rearguard alongside John Stones.

Uncertainty remains over whether Southgate will opt for a three or four-man defence at Wembley, but their impeccable defensive record at the tournament so far means that the England coach has no need to fix what is not broken, which could benefit Jack Grealish as he eyes another start in the final third.

Bukayo Saka impressed after being handed a surprise start against the Czechs but may not be risked in a game of this magnitude, which could lead to Southgate re-introducing Phil Foden alongside Sterling and Harry Kane.

As for Germany, Low only has one injury concern as Lukas Klostermann remains sidelined with a thigh issue, and while Jonas Hofmann is fit and available for selection after shaking off a knee problem, his chances of starting are slim-to-none.

Goretzka has put his name in the hat for selection after striking an 84th-minute equaliser against Hungary, and reports have claimed that he could replace Ilkay Gundogan - who was booked in that game - for the last-16 clash.

Thomas Muller was fit enough to play a part as a substitute against Hungary and may come in for Leroy Sane on Tuesday, with Serge Gnabry and Kai Havertz expected to reprise their roles up top.

Antonio Rudiger reportedly missed training over the weekend due to a cold, but the Chelsea man is still expected to step foot onto familiar surroundings in the English capital, while Robin Gosens is also a doubt due to infection.

England possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Shaw; Rice, Phillips; Foden, Grealish, Sterling; Kane

Germany possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Ginter, Hummels, Rudiger; Kimmich, Kroos, Goretzka, Gosens; Havertz, Muller; Gnabry


SM words green background

We say: England 1-2 Germany (a.e.t)

There would be no better time for Kane and co to rediscover their golden touch against a Germany defence which is certainly not impenetrable, and it is exactly these sorts of tests that England must prevail in to prove their credentials as serious contenders for the crown.

Progressing from the group without a single goal shipped is undoubtedly a positive sign, but Germany's attackers are that little bit more potent than the Czechs or Croats. We would dearly love to back an England win, but in a tale as old as time, the Germans' winning mentality should shine through as another shot at glory goes begging for the Three Lions.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 43.61%. A win for England had a probability of 37.01% and a draw had a probability of 19.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-2 with a probability of 6.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-3 (5.53%) and 1-3 (5.13%). The likeliest England win was 2-1 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: England vs Germany

England
46.3%
Draw
12.5%
Germany
41.2%
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Germany players celebrate scoring against Latvia on June 7, 2021
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany32107
Q Switzerland Switzerland31205
3 Hungary Hungary31023
4 Scotland flag Scotland30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain33009
Q Italy Italy31114
3 Croatia Croatia30212
4 Albania national flag Albania30121

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q England flag England31205
Q Denmark Denmark30303
Q Slovenia Slovenia30303
4 Serbia Serbia30212

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Austria Austria32016
Q France France31205
Q Netherlands Netherlands31114
4 Poland Poland30121

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Romania Romania31114
Q Belgium Belgium31114
Q Slovakia Slovakia31114
4 Ukraine Ukraine31114

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal32016
Q Turkey Turkey32016
Q Georgia Georgia31114
4 Czech Republic Czech Republic30121


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