Estonia take on Latvia at the A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn on Thursday evening in a winner-takes-all clash.
The two sides are locked on points heading into the final round of fixtures in the 2020 Baltic Cup, which has been pushed back by a year due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Match preview
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Latvia have won the biennial competition, contested between themselves, Estonia and Lithuania, a record 13 times.
That includes a run of four successive triumphs since they last failed to lift the trophy in 2010, with Lithuania coming out on top that time around.
You have to go back to 1938 for the most recent of Estonia's successes in the competition, but they can put an end to that run with victory on Thursday.
The Wolves top the three-team group on goal difference after beating Lithuania 3-1 in their opening game last week.
Paulius Golubickas cancelled out Markas Beneta's own goal, but second-half strikes from Eduards Emsis and Roberts Uldrikis earned Latvia all three points.
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Estonia also beat Lithuania in their last Baltic Cup game through a Henri Anier strike on the hour mark in Vilnius, meaning that they trail Latvia by a goal in the group standings.
The Blueshirts followed up that victory over Lithuania with another 1-0 win against Finland - a side that have previously competed in the Baltic Cup themselves.
That win over Euro 2020-bound Finland was secured thanks to Rauno Sappinen's penalty with 59 minutes played, making it back-to-back wins for the first time since 2017.
Latvia faced a tougher opponent in their friendly on Monday, going down 7-1 to Germany at the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Dusseldorf.
That was a chastening experience for Dainis Kazakevics's side, but all focus is on this showdown with Estonia and what could be a fifth Baltic Cup triumph in a row.
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Team News
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Thomas Haberli was only appointed in January and is still getting to know his Estonia squad, perhaps explaining why plenty of changes were made between the wins over Lithuania and Finland.
The hosts will name their strongest possible side for Thursday's clash, however, which should see Sappinen and Anier partnered up top.
After scoring the winner against Finland, FC Flora striker Sappinen now has six goals in his last 10 international appearances.
Latvia, likewise, will name their strongest XI for this match. Uldrikis has started both of this month's fixtures and is expected to retain his place up top here.
Igors Tarasovs and Vitalijs Maksimenko are among those pushing for recalls following the heavy friendly defeat to Germany earlier in the week.
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Igonen, Tamm, Pikk, Kuusk, Paskotsi, Vassiljev, Kait, Kreida, Anier, Sappinen, Sinyavskiy
Latvia possible starting lineup:
Ozols, Oss, Cernomordijs, Jurkovskis, Zjuzins, Savalnieks, Kaklins, Ciganiks, Emsis, Jaunzems, Uldrikis
We say: Estonia 2-1 Latvia
Latvia may have been thrashed by Germany in a friendly last time out, though they are in charge of their Baltic Cup fate thanks to a 3-1 win over Lithuania last time out.
However, Estonia are in good form thanks to back-to-back wins, and we can see them overcoming Latvia - who they are ranked 22 places above in the FIFA rankings - to end their long wait for silverware in the competition.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 38.22%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.82%) and 0-2 (7.31%). The likeliest Estonia win was 1-0 (11.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
