Everton take on Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Premier League on Wednesday, with the hosts requiring a victory to keep their slim hopes of qualifying for Europe alive.
Wolves, meanwhile, can no longer finish in the top half of the table after losing to Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, so they may already be looking towards next season.
Match preview
© Reuters
Everton's dismal home form continued with a 1-0 defeat to already-relegated Sheffield United on Sunday, with the Toffees unable to find a response to 17-year-old Daniel Jebbison's first ever Premier League goal in the seventh minute.
Carlo Ancelotti's side had 16 shots and 63% possession across the 90 minutes, but they have now won only one of their last 11 league games at Goodison Park, with their home record only the 15th best in the division so far this season.
As such, they may have little confidence of gaining the three points they will almost certainly need against Wolves on Wednesday in order to keep their European aspirations intact heading into the final day fixture away to champions Manchester City on Sunday.
However, Wolves have not been brilliant on the road themselves, so something will have to give in a fixture which could be more open than expected given how little is riding on it.
© Reuters
Indeed, Wolves have generally been known for their defensive solidity under Nuno Espirito Santo's management, but they conceded 13 shots on target during their 2-0 loss to Tottenham, while mustering 15 attempts themselves.
Spurs, as expected, simply had more cutting edge than their opponents, with Harry Kane punishing Wolves' poorly held defensive line on the stroke of half time, before Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg pounced on a rebound after the hour mark to effectively wrap up the three points for his side.
Defeat meant Wolves can no longer secure a third successive top-half finish since their promotion to the Premier League in 2018, but in fairness to them, they have been struck by injuries to key players - most notably Raul Jimenez - as well as having sorely missed Matt Doherty and Diogo Jota since their summer sales to Spurs and Liverpool respectively.
Nuno will be aiming to end the season on a high ahead of hopefully having more luck while performing better next campaign, with his side more than capable of gaining a win at Everton on Wednesday given the Toffees' home struggles and frequent vulnerabilities to quick transitions.
- D
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Having used a back five in recent weeks, Ancelotti may be tempted to select a more bold starting XI given his side's need to win.
Mason Holgate was substituted for Gylfi Sigurdsson at half time of the defeat to Sheff Utd, with that switch potentially occurring from the start against Wolves on Wednesday.
Yerry Mina was not included in the squad due to a muscle injury and is not likely to be risked at this stage of the season, with Joshua King, Jean-Philippe Gbamin and Tyler Onyango all ruled out.
Wolves, meanwhile, will continue to be without their attacking talisman Jimenez, who has not featured since sustaining a serious head injury against Arsenal in late November.
Daniel Podence, Pedro Neto and Jonny have all been ruled out until next season, too, while Owen Otasowie is unlikely to be involved due to a knock.
Given the quick turnaround between fixtures and lack of significance attached to their remaining two fixtures, Nuno may make several changes, with the likes of Max Kilman, Rayan Ait-Nouri, Willy Boly, Ruben Neves and Willian Jose all hoping to be restored to the side.
Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Coleman, Godfrey, Keane, Digne; Doucoure, Allan; Rodriguez, Sigurdsson, Richarlison; Calvert-Lewin
Wolverhampton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Boly, Coady, Kilman; Semedo, Neves, Ait-Nouri; Traore, Vitinha, Gibbs-White; Willian Jose
We say: Everton 1-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
This fixture represents the 15th best home record versus the 15th best away record in the Premier League this season, so a thriller is hardly expected.
As such, a share of the spoils seems likely, with both sides content to avoid defeat as the season draws to a close.
Top tip
Video prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 40.31%. A win for Wolverhampton Wanderers had a probability of 34.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Wolverhampton Wanderers win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Everton in this match.
