Two teams officially eliminated from playoff contention in the MLS Eastern Conference will play for pride on Wednesday as FC Cincinnati host the Chicago Fire at TQL Stadium in Ohio.
The Orange-and-Blue have dropped four straight contests by a single goal under interim manager Tyrone Marshall, while the temporary Chicago boss, Frank Klopas, saw his team fight back twice from a one-goal deficit to draw the New England Revolution.
Match preview
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For a third successive campaign, it will be an abrupt end to the season for FC Cincinnati, who can only hope for a higher standing in the Eastern Conference than in previous years.
Knowing that they are mathematically eliminated from postseason contention could release some of the tension that the team had been playing with throughout the year.
Given that they are dead last in the Eastern Conference, the hope is that this team can at least finish the year strong and move out of that position.
Cincy have lost seven straight games, tying a franchise record set last year, but they are playing a Chicago team who have only beaten them once since the Orange-and-Blue came into the league in 2019, and they have not conceded a goal to the Fire in Cincinnati.
Given how many personnel changes this team have made from the beginning of this campaign until now should serve as notice to all the players, along with interim manager Tyrone Marshall, that they need to show the management team something special over their final five games to convince them that they deserve to be here beyond this season.
Since Marshall took over, we have seen a much better effort from this team consistently, but one too many errors have cost them points.
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On Saturday, we saw the Fire show a ton of resiliency and fight to come back and draw the top team in the Eastern Conference and MLS.
It is too little too late at this stage of the season, but it should give the players a confidence boost to finish the year on a positive note.
Not only did Chicago steal two points away from New England, but they also picked up their third result away from home in 2021.
Despite conceding early into the second half versus the Revs, we saw the Fire play with a lot more confidence than we have seen throughout most of this campaign as they showed great mental strength and belief, two traits which we have often failed to see from them consistently this year.
Throughout this season, the Fire have not been able to sustain any momentum when putting together a positive result, and that is part of the reason why they will be watching the MLS Cup playoffs on TV for a fourth successive campaign.
If they can find a way to win their final four games, this team will have 11 victories, which would be their highest tally in a regular season since 2017, when they collected 16.
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Team News
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Midfielder Kyle Scott made his MLS debut for Cincinnati on Saturday, coming on for Haris Medunjanin in the second half, his first appearance since signing from Newcastle in the English Premier League.
Kamohelo Mokotjo made his 10th career start for the Orange-and-Blue this weekend, while Joe Gyau saw his first action since May 1.
Edgar Castillo is eligible to return following his yellow card suspension, while Ronald Matarrita could be back following his time with the Costa Rican national team, but Yuya Kubo and Gustavo Vallecilla could miss this match because of ankle and hamstring injuries, respectively.
Alvaro Medran scored his fourth career goal for Chicago in their draw with New England, while Ignacio Aliseda picked up his fourth of the year thanks to a nice pass from Brian Gutierrez, who collected his first assist since August 28.
Goalkeeper Gabriel Slonina made a career-high six saves in his seventh career start, and Jhon Espinoza notched his first career MLS assist on their opening goal versus the Revs.
Boris Sekulic is still dealing with back spasms, Carlos Teran and Fabian Herbers are suffering from right thigh issues and Francisco Calvo might miss this game due to health and safety protocols.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Tyton; Cameron, Blackett, Hagglund; Bailey, Scott, Cruz, Atanga; Acosta, Barreal, Brenner
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Slonina; M. Navarro, Bornstein, Kappelhof, Espinoza; Pineda, Omsberg; Aliseda, Medran, Stojanovic; Beric
We say: FC Cincinnati 1-0 Chicago Fire
These teams have gone through many frustrating times this season, and with two coaches and a lot of players looking to keep their jobs into next year, expect to see a very tight affair.
Chicago have never scored a goal in two games played in Cincinnati, and even though the Fire performed well against the Revs, they have failed to show us enough consistency this season so we expect to see a letdown from them in this one.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 38.35%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.
