In the first leg of the third Champions League qualifying round, FC Midtjylland are set to host Ferencvaros at MCH Arena on Tuesday.
The home side have five points in Denmark's premier division after three matchweeks, while the visitors have three points after one game in Hungary's top flight.
Match preview
![Thomas Thomasberg of FC Midtjylland during a 3F Superliga match against Aarhus GF at Ceres Park Aarhus Ceres Park Denmark, July 19 [on July 21]](https://sm.imgix.net/24/29/thomas-thomasberg_1.jpg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "Thomas Thomasberg of FC Midtjylland during a 3F Superliga match against Aarhus GF at Ceres Park Aarhus Ceres Park Denmark, July 19 [on July 21]")
© Imago
The hosts comfortably overcame FC Santa Coloma 4-0 on aggregate in the previous qualifying round of the Champions League and won the second leg of their tie 1-0 on July 31 after prevailing 3-0 in the first leg on July 23.
Last season, Midtjylland were eliminated from the fourth and final round of the Europa Conference League qualifiers after losing 7-6 on penalties against Legia Warsaw.
The Wolves most recently qualified for the group stage of the Champions League in the 2020-21 season, but they will not remember that campaign particularly fondly considering they lost the first four games and drew their final two.
In the 2024-25 top-flight season so far, Midtjylland drew their first two games but on August 3 won their most recent Superliga game 2-0 against Aalborg BK, who were in the Danish second tier last season.
Manager Thomas Thomasberg will be very concerned that his team have faced 35 shots in their opening three league games, and 51 when also factoring in their clashes against Santa Coloma.
However, Thomasberg's side are unbeaten in their last 11 games in all competitions and have not lost any of their last seven matches at MCH Arena.
![Aral Simsir of FC Midtjylland during a Superliga match against AAB on August 3, 2024 [on August 4, 2024]](https://sm.imgix.net/24/31/aral-simsir.jpg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "Aral Simsir of FC Midtjylland during a Superliga match against AAB on August 3, 2024 [on August 4, 2024]")
© Imago
Opponents Ferencvaros beat The New Saints 7-1 on aggregate to reach the third round of the Champions League qualifiers.
Last term, the visitors were eliminated in the first qualifying round against Kl Klaksvik after losing 3-0 over two legs, but they did make it to the knockout round playoffs of the Europa Conference League.
Fradi's most recent campaign in the group stage of the Champions League came in the 2020-21 season, although it should be noted that they conceded 17 goals and lost five of their six group games.
In their opening game of the Hungarian top-flight season, Ferencvaros beat Kecskemet 1-0 on August 3 thanks to a goal from Adama Malouda Traore in the 22nd minute.
Manager Pascal Jansen, who has been in charge since June 2024, has won four times and drawn twice in his six games in charge.
Although Jansen's side have only won once in their last four away games, they did win seven of the previous eight matches on the road.
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Team News
![Pascal Jansen, Head Coach of Ferencvaros, during the UEFA Champions League Second Qualifying Round match The New Saints vs Ferencvaros at Park Hall Stadium, Oswestry, United Kingdom on 30th July 2024 [on August 4, 2024]](https://sm.imgix.net/24/31/pascal-jansen.jpg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "Pascal Jansen, Head Coach of Ferencvaros, during the UEFA Champions League Second Qualifying Round match The New Saints vs Ferencvaros at Park Hall Stadium, Oswestry, United Kingdom on 30th July 2024 [on August 4, 2024]")
© Imago
The hosts could be without forward Edward Chilufya, who was replaced at half time against Santa Coloma and did not feature in his team's win against Aalborg BK on August 3.
In that game, Midtjylland midfielder Denil Castillo was forced off with an injury, and he is a doubt for Tuesday's match.
The Wolves could also be without Paulinho until the middle of the month, while striker Gue-sung Cho has not featured since May 26.
Forward Marrony has not made an appearance for the club since September and is set to miss out once again.
As for the visitors, Barnabas Varga has not featured since his freak injury at Euro 2024 while playing for Hungary and will miss out.
Ferencvaros winger Owusu Kwabena was subbed off due to an injury last time out against Kecskemet and is a doubt for Tuesday's clash.
FC Midtjylland possible starting lineup:
Olafsson; Gabriel, Diao, M Sorensen, Juninho; Osorio, Romer, Martinez, Sorensen; Buksa, Dju
Ferencvaros possible starting lineup:
Dibusz; Makreckis, Cisse, Gustavo, Ramirez; Maiga, Rommens; Traore, Zachariassen, Costa; Pesic
We say: FC Midtjylland 1-1 Ferencvaros
Considering the amount of shots that Midtjylland have conceded so far this season, it would be surprising if they left Hungary with a clean sheet.
Given his side are unbeaten so far under his reign, Ferencvaros boss Jansen will be confident of avoiding defeat in the first leg.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a win with a probability of 51.11%. A win for has a probability of 25.74% and a draw has a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest win is 1-2 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.73%).
Lewis Nolan
