Turkish giants Fenerbahce will be aiming to secure a first-leg advantage when they host Czech outfit Slavia Prague in the playoff round of the Europa Conference League.
The hosts will be looking to progress to the last 16 for the first time in any European competition since the 2015-16 campaign, while the visitors are hoping to reach the last 16 for the third time in the last four years.
Match preview
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After accumulating just six points from as many matches in the Europa League, Fenerbahce finished third in Group D, behind Eintracht Frankfurt and Olympiacos, and have subsequently dropped into the Europa Conference League playoffs.
Since discovering their European fate in December, the Yellow Canaries have endured an inconsistent run of form domestically, winning, drawing and losing four games each in their last 12 matches.
Fenerbahce followed up last Tuesday's 1-0 home defeat to Kayserispor in the last 16 of the Turkish Cup with a 2-1 league victory against 10-man Giresunspor at the weekend, with Enner Valencia and Dimitris Pelkas both on the scoresheet.
Ismail Kartal's men, however, are well off the pace in the Super Lig, as they currently sit 20 points behind league leaders Trabzonspor and eight points behind Konyaspor in second, who occupy the final Champions League spot.
Fenerbahce head into Thursday's contest after failing to win or keep a clean sheet in any of their last three home matches in European competition and they have also lost three of their last four domestic home games. Kartal will be seeking improvements from his side on home soil as they bid to gain an advantage from the first leg.
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A relatively strong finish to their Europa Conference League group-stage campaign helped Slavia Prague finish second in Group E, six points behind group winners Feyenoord.
The Stitched lost two of their opening three group games, but they managed to turn their fortunes around with a slender 1-0 win over Maccabi Haifa and two score draws against Feyenoord and Union Berlin.
Jindrich Trpisovsky's men have since been battling at the Czech First League summit with title rivals Viktoria Plzen and Sparta Prague. After 21 games played, Slavia – the current holders – sit level on 51 points with Plzen, but their superior goal difference sees them positioned at the top of the table.
Slavia now turn their attention to the Europa Conference League but will head to Istanbul with a poor away record in European competition, as they have failed to win or keep a clean sheet in any of their last six games on the road.
After faring much better in the Czech top-flight, losing only one of their last 33 away league matches, Trpisovsky will be hoping his side can replicate their domestic form in Europe and claim a positive result on Thursday to take back to the Czech capital for the second leg.
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Team News
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After a spell in isolation with COVID-19, Fenerbahce playmaker Mesut Ozil has returned to first-team training this week and the 33-year-old will be in contention to start on Thursday.
The hosts will, however, be without Luiz Gustavo (calf), Irfan Kahveci (shoulder) and Serdar Dursun (fractured cheekbone) due to injury.
Miguel Crespo served a one-match domestic suspension at the weekend, but the 25-year-old is set to return to the first XI ahead of Mert Hakan Yandas, joining Jose Sosa and Miha Zajc in centre-midfield.
As for Slavia Prague, they announced this week that star midfielder Nicolae Stanciu, who has contributed to 14 goals in all tournaments this season, has left the club to join Chinese Super League side Wuhan Three Towns FC.
Either Lukas Masopust or Aiham Ousou may be forced to play at right-back ahead of the suspended Alexander Bah, while Jan Boril, Laco Takacs, David Hovorka and Jan Kuchta are all ruled out with injuries.
Fenerbahce possible starting lineup:
Bayindir; Sangare, Kim, Szalai, Kadioglu; Sosa, Zajc, Crespo; Osayi-Samuel, Ozil; Valencia
Slavia Prague possible starting lineup:
Mandous; Ousou, Holes, Kacharaba, Jurasek; Sevcik, Traore; Schranz, Lingr, Olayinka; Tecl
We say: Fenerbahce 2-1 Slavia Prague
An open contest is set to be played out on Thursday between two teams who have struggled for consistency in European competition.
There is little to separate Fenerbahce and Slavia Prague, but with the hosts set to line up with their two most prolific scorers this season, Mesut Ozil and Enner Valencia, their quality in the final third may help them secure a narrow win at the Sukru Saracoglu Stadium.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 47.62%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Slavia Prague had a probability of 25.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.26%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.58%), while for a Slavia Prague win it was 0-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
